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Week 8 •
Hornet Stadium

Northern Colorado35 @FINAL 40Sacramento State

0-0 Big Sky Power rating: -42.0
3-3 Big Sky Power rating: -18.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SAC -15.0
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
SAC -26.9
Edge
+11.8SAC
See details
◂ favors UNCOfavors SAC ▸Market: SAC -15.0
24.0 › SAC
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SAC
no impact
SAC
no impact
no impact
5 UNCO5 SAC10 UNCO10 SACModel: SAC -26.9

Betting information

Spread
SAC -15.0
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
UNCO 19.8 – 34.8 SAC

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Sacramento State defeated Northern Colorado 40–35 in a closely contested finish. Northern Colorado covered by 10.0; Game went Over by 20.5. The market closed at Sacramento State -15.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Sacramento State -26.9 - a gap of 11.8 points toward Sacramento State, of which 10.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Northern Colorado vs Sacramento State?

At kickoff, conditions at Hornet Stadium were Clear, 65°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Northern Colorado travels 901 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Northern Colorado arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Sacramento State won by 5 in a closely contested finish.

Northern Colorado covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 20.5 points.

How do Northern Colorado and Sacramento State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Sacramento State (-18.0) over Northern Colorado (-42.0) by 24.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Sacramento State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Northern Colorado and Sacramento State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Sacramento State won and Northern Colorado covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 19, 2025 Game-time

Clear

65°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity62%
Wind3 mph SSE
Gusts7 mph
Wind map for Northern Colorado at Sacramento State: aerial view of Hornet Stadium, wind from the SSE at 3.1 mph, gusting to 6.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM PDT
Venue
Hornet Stadium
Capacity
21,195
Elevation
49 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

Northern ColoradoAway Sacramento StateHome
This week901 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week1,071 miles
Season total948 miles3,960 miles
Body clock19:0018:00
Rest8 days7 days

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