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Week 8 •
Falcon Stadium

Wyoming21 @FINAL 24Air Force

3-3 MW Power rating: -7.1
1-5 MW Power rating: -6.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
AF -4.0
PM Implied
AF -3.3
Blue Chip model
AF -3.5
Edge
-0.5WYO
See details
◂ favors WYOfavors AF ▸Market: AF -4.0
AF
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
AF
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 WYO1 AF2 WYO2 AFModel: AF -3.5

Betting information

Spread
AF -4.0
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
WYO 26.3 – 30.3 AF
Prediction markets
AF 63% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Air Force defeated Wyoming 24–21 in a nail-biter. Wyoming covered by 1.0; Game went Under by 11.5. The market closed at Air Force -4.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Air Force -3.5. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Wyoming vs Air Force?

Air Force

Snapped five-game losing streak

Air Force ended a five-game losing streak with a 24-21 win over Wyoming, improving to 2-5 overall and 1-4 in Mountain West play. This victory could provide a much-needed confidence boost for the team.

Dominant rushing attack continues

Liam Szarka rushed for 141 yards and a touchdown, marking his fifth consecutive 100-yard game (an Air Force record). Owen Allen added 105 yards, and the team extended its streak of 100+ rushing yards to 92 games, the longest in FBS. This ground game will be key in future matchups.

Defense forces critical turnovers

Despite entering the game with the worst defense in FBS (allowing 40 points and 496.7 yards per game), Air Force intercepted two fourth-quarter passes from Wyoming quarterbacks. Roger Jones picked off a pass in the end zone, and Max Mustell's interception set up the go-ahead field goal. These turnovers were pivotal in securing the win.

Defensive vulnerabilities remain

Air Force's defense still allowed 409 total yards and 21 points to Wyoming, including a late touchdown. With the defense ranking 134th in scoring and last in total and passing yards allowed, opponents may exploit these weaknesses in upcoming games.

Clutch special teams and situational play

Kade Frew scored on a fourth-and-1 run to take the lead, and Reagan Tubbs hit a 41-yard field goal into the wind to extend the lead. These plays highlight Air Force's ability to execute in critical moments, which could be a factor in close games ahead.

What were the weather conditions for Wyoming vs Air Force?

At kickoff, conditions at Falcon Stadium were Clear, 49°F, wind chill 48°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Wyoming travels 164 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Air Force won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Wyoming covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 11.5 points.

How do Wyoming and Air Force compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Air Force (-6.1) over Wyoming (-7.1) by 1.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Air Force brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Wyoming and Air Force?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Air Force won and Wyoming covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Clear

49°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity44%
Wind9 mph N
Gusts18 mph
Wind chill48°F
Wind map for Wyoming at Air Force: aerial view of Falcon Stadium, wind from the N at 8.7 mph, gusting to 18.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
01:30 PM MDT
Venue
Falcon Stadium
Capacity
39,441
Elevation
6,657 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

WyomingAway Air ForceHome
This week164 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,203 miles
Season total2,847 miles5,069 miles
Body clock13:3013:30
Rest7 days7 days

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