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Week 8 •
Malone Stadium

Troy37 @FINAL 14UL Monroe

4-2 Sun Belt Power rating: -3.6
3-3 Sun Belt Power rating: -17.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TROY -4.5
PM Implied
TROY -3.8
Blue Chip model
TROY -10.3
Edge
-5.8TROY
See details
◂ favors TROYfavors ULM ▸Market: TROY -4.5
‹ 13.9 TROY
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ULM
no impact
no impact
no impact
ULM
2 TROY2 ULM4 TROY4 ULM6 TROY6 ULMModel: TROY -10.3

Betting information

Spread
TROY -4.5
Total
45.5
Odds implied score
TROY 25.0 – 20.5 ULM
Prediction markets
TROY 65% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Troy defeated UL Monroe 37–14 to secure a comfortable win. Troy covered by 18.5; Game went Over by 5.5. The market closed at Troy -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Troy -10.3 - a gap of 5.8 points toward Troy, of which 4.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Troy vs UL Monroe?

UL Monroe

Offensive Struggles in Second Half

After pulling within 17-14 in the third quarter, UL Monroe's offense stalled, allowing Troy to score 20 unanswered points. The Warhawks must find ways to sustain drives and finish in the red zone to stay competitive.

Turnover Issues Continue

Quarterback Aidan Armenta threw two interceptions, including a 53-yard pick-six that sealed the loss. Protecting the ball will be critical for UL Monroe to avoid giving opponents short fields and easy scores.

Passing Game Shows Promise

Armenta completed 19 of 33 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown, indicating potential in the passing attack. Building on this efficiency could help the offense generate more consistent scoring.

Defense Needs to Create Stops

UL Monroe's defense allowed Troy to score 20 points in the second half after a competitive first half. Improving third-down defense and limiting explosive plays will be key to keeping games close.

What were the weather conditions for Troy vs UL Monroe?

At kickoff, conditions at Malone Stadium were Clear, 81°F, heat index 84°F with winds of 15 mph. Gusts reaching 23 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Troy travels 362 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Troy won by 23 to secure a comfortable win.

Troy covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 5.5 points.

How do Troy and UL Monroe compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Troy (-3.6) over UL Monroe (-17.5) by 13.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, UL Monroe faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. UL Monroe brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Troy and UL Monroe?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Troy won and Troy covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Clear

81°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity58%
Wind15 mph S
Gusts23 mph
Heat index84°F
Wind map for Troy at UL Monroe: aerial view of Malone Stadium, wind from the S at 14.8 mph, gusting to 23 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM CDT
Venue
Malone Stadium
Capacity
27,617
Elevation
92 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

TroyAway UL MonroeHome
This week362 miles0 miles
Last week1,447 miles1,522 miles
Season total4,077 miles5,150 miles
Body clock14:0014:00
Rest6 days7 days

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