14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 8 • October 18, 2025, 08:15 PM UTC
Mississippi State @ Florida
4-2
SEC
Power Rank: 13.0
21 FINAL 23
2-4
SEC
Power Rank: 14.6
Mississippi State covered by 7.5 | Game went Under by 8.5

By · Last updated

Florida defeated Mississippi State 23–21 in a nail-biter.

Mississippi State @ Florida Preview

General Information

Week: Week 8
Kick Off (at stadium): 04:15 PM EDT
Stadium: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Capacity: 88,548
Elevation: 98 ft
HFA Rating: 2.5
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread Florida -9.5
Total (O/U) 52.5
Expected Score MSST 21.5 - 31.0 FLA
Power Rank Implied Line Florida +1.6
Prediction Markets Florida 77% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

36.3°F

Wind Chill: 33.6°F
Wind: 3.1 mph WNW
Gusts: 6.7 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 42%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Mississippi State (Away)

This Week: 461.7 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 1730.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:15
Rest Days: 14

Florida (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 1679.7 miles
Season Total: 3314.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 16:15
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Florida -9.5
Total Points 52.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Mississippi State 13.0
Florida 14.6
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 462 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Mississippi State +7
HFA: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Capacity 88,548
Elevation 98 ft
Weather: Clear
Temperature 36.3°F
Wind Speed 3.1 mph
Your Line Florida +1.6
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Mississippi State vs Florida?

Mississippi State: Key Factors

Florida: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Mississippi State travels 462 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Mississippi State arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

Florida won by 2 in a nail-biter.

Mississippi State covered the spread, covering by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 8.5 points.

How do Mississippi State and Florida compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Florida (14.6) over Mississippi State (13.0) by 1.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Florida brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Mississippi State and Florida?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Florida won and Mississippi State covered the spread.