Florida defeated Mississippi State 23–21 in a nail-biter. Mississippi State covered by 7.5; Game went Under by 6.5.
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Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium were Clear, 73.0°F, Feels Like 76.8°F with winds of 8.1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
73.0°F
Mississippi State drove into field-goal range in the final seconds, but Blake Shapen's pass was intercepted by Florida's Michai Boireau, ending the comeback attempt and extending the Bulldogs' SEC losing streak to 15 games.
Shapen threw for 324 yards and a touchdown, Brenen Thompson had 155 receiving yards, and Davon Booth rushed for 105 yards and two scores, but the offense failed to capitalize on multiple opportunities, including a missed field goal that appeared to go over the upright.
The Bulldogs allowed Florida to gain 430 total yards and score 23 points, despite the Gators playing with a depleted secondary and making several self-inflicted errors, highlighting ongoing defensive issues.
Mississippi State hosts the Longhorns next Saturday in Starkville, marking Texas's first visit since 1991. The Bulldogs will need to clean up mistakes and improve defensively to compete against a ranked opponent.
Mississippi State travels 462 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Mississippi State arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.
Florida won by 2 in a nail-biter.
Mississippi State covered the spread by a solid margin.
The total went Under by 6.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Florida (14.6) over Mississippi State (13.0) by 1.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Florida brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Florida won and Mississippi State covered the spread.
