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Week 8 •
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Mississippi State21 @FINAL 23Florida

4-2 SEC Power rating: 13.0
2-4 SEC Power rating: 14.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
FLA -9.5
PM Implied
FLA -7.6
Blue Chip model
FLA -4.4
Edge
-5.1MSST
See details
◂ favors MSSTfavors FLA ▸Market: FLA -9.5
FLA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
FLA
MSST
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 MSST2 FLA4 MSST4 FLAModel: FLA -4.4

Betting information

Spread
FLA -9.5
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
MSST 20.5 – 30.0 FLA
Prediction markets
FLA 77% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Florida defeated Mississippi State 23–21 in a nail-biter. Mississippi State covered by 7.5; Game went Under by 6.5. The market closed at Florida -9.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Florida -4.4 - a gap of 5.1 points toward Mississippi State, of which 4.1 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Mississippi State vs Florida?

Mississippi State

Late interception seals loss

Mississippi State drove into field-goal range in the final seconds, but Blake Shapen's pass was intercepted by Florida's Michai Boireau, ending the comeback attempt and extending the Bulldogs' SEC losing streak to 15 games.

Strong offensive performance wasted

Shapen threw for 324 yards and a touchdown, Brenen Thompson had 155 receiving yards, and Davon Booth rushed for 105 yards and two scores, but the offense failed to capitalize on multiple opportunities, including a missed field goal that appeared to go over the upright.

Defensive struggles continue

The Bulldogs allowed Florida to gain 430 total yards and score 23 points, despite the Gators playing with a depleted secondary and making several self-inflicted errors, highlighting ongoing defensive issues.

Next up: No. 21 Texas at home

Mississippi State hosts the Longhorns next Saturday in Starkville, marking Texas's first visit since 1991. The Bulldogs will need to clean up mistakes and improve defensively to compete against a ranked opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Mississippi State vs Florida?

At kickoff, conditions at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium were Clear, 73°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Mississippi State travels 462 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Mississippi State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Florida won by 2 in a nail-biter.

Mississippi State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 6.5 points.

How do Mississippi State and Florida compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Florida (14.6) over Mississippi State (13.0) by 1.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Florida brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Mississippi State and Florida?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Florida won and Mississippi State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 18, 2025 Game-time

Clear

73°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity55%
Wind8 mph E
Gusts14 mph
Wind map for Mississippi State at Florida: aerial view of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, wind from the E at 8.1 mph, gusting to 13.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 8
Kickoff (local)
04:15 PM EDT
Venue
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Capacity
88,548
Elevation
98 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Mississippi StateAway FloridaHome
This week462 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week1,680 miles
Season total1,730 miles3,314 miles
Body clock15:1516:15
Rest14 days7 days

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