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Week 6 •
Scheumann Stadium

Ohio14 @FINAL 20Ball State

3-2 MAC Power rating: 0.1
1-3 MAC Power rating: -20.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
OHIO -14.0
PM Implied
OHIO -10.9
Blue Chip model
OHIO -16.2
Edge
-2.2OHIO
See details
◂ favors OHIOfavors BALL ▸Market: OHIO -14.0
‹ 20.4 OHIO
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BALL
BALL
no impact
no impact
BALL
1 OHIO1 BALL2 OHIO2 BALL3 OHIO3 BALLModel: OHIO -16.2

Betting information

Spread
OHIO -14.0
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
OHIO 33.3 – 19.3 BALL
Prediction markets
OHIO 85% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ball State defeated Ohio 20–14 in a closely contested finish. Ball State covered by 20.0; Game went Under by 18.5. The market closed at Ohio -14.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Ohio -16.2, an edge of 2.2 points toward Ohio. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Ohio 20.4 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Ohio vs Ball State?

Ball State

Second-Half Dominance

Ball State outscored Ohio 20-0 in the second half, outgaining them 266-100, showing a strong ability to adjust and control the game after halftime.

Kiael Kelly's Dual Threat

Quarterback Kiael Kelly threw for 185 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 96 yards and a score, making him a key offensive weapon who can beat defenses with both arm and legs.

Clutch Late-Game Execution

The Cardinals scored the game-winning touchdown with 57 seconds left on a 43-yard pass from Kelly to Qian Magwood, demonstrating poise and playmaking ability in critical moments.

Defensive Turnaround

After allowing 14 first-half points, Ball State's defense shut out Ohio in the second half, forced a safety on a fumbled snap, and limited the Bobcats to 100 yards after halftime.

Balanced Offensive Attack

Ball State rushed for 172 yards as a team, with Kelly leading the way, and Magwood had 92 receiving yards, showing a balanced offense that can exploit defenses in multiple ways.

What were the weather conditions for Ohio vs Ball State?

At kickoff, conditions at Scheumann Stadium were Overcast, 80°F, heat index 82°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Ohio travels 187 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Ball State won by 6 in a closely contested finish.

Ball State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 18.5 points.

How do Ohio and Ball State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Ohio (0.1) over Ball State (-20.3) by 20.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Ball State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Ball State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Ohio and Ball State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Ball State won and Ball State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

80°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity51%
Wind6 mph SW
Gusts7 mph
Heat index82°F
Wind map for Ohio at Ball State: aerial view of Scheumann Stadium, wind from the SW at 6.3 mph, gusting to 7.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EDT
Venue
Scheumann Stadium
Capacity
16,319
Elevation
951 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

OhioAway Ball StateHome
This week187 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total1,150 miles2,565 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
Rest7 days14 days

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