Ball State defeated Ohio 20–14 in a closely contested finish. Ball State covered by 20.0; Game went Under by 18.5. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Ohio 20.4 points stronger on a neutral field.
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Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Scheumann Stadium were Overcast, 80.4°F, Heat Index 81.7°F with winds of 6.3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
80.4°F
Ball State outscored Ohio 20-0 in the second half, outgaining them 266-100, showing a strong ability to adjust and control the game after halftime.
Quarterback Kiael Kelly threw for 185 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 96 yards and a score, making him a key offensive weapon who can beat defenses with both arm and legs.
The Cardinals scored the game-winning touchdown with 57 seconds left on a 43-yard pass from Kelly to Qian Magwood, demonstrating poise and playmaking ability in critical moments.
After allowing 14 first-half points, Ball State's defense shut out Ohio in the second half, forced a safety on a fumbled snap, and limited the Bobcats to 100 yards after halftime.
Ball State rushed for 172 yards as a team, with Kelly leading the way, and Magwood had 92 receiving yards, showing a balanced offense that can exploit defenses in multiple ways.
Ohio travels 187 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Ball State won by 6 in a closely contested finish.
Ball State covered the spread comfortably.
The total went Under by 18.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Ohio (0.1) over Ball State (-20.3) by 20.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Ball State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Ball State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Ball State won and Ball State covered the spread.
