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Week 6 •
Centennial Bank Stadium

Texas State30 @FINAL 31Arkansas State

3-1 Sun Belt Power rating: -4.7
1-4 Sun Belt Power rating: -9.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TXST -14.0
PM Implied
TXST -9.2
Blue Chip model
TXST -2.2
Edge
+11.8ARST
See details
◂ favors TXSTfavors ARST ▸Market: TXST -14.0
TXST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARST
TXST
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 TXST5 ARST10 TXST10 ARSTModel: TXST -2.2

Betting information

Spread
TXST -14.0
Total
63.5
Odds implied score
TXST 38.8 – 24.8 ARST
Prediction markets
TXST 82% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arkansas State defeated Texas State 31–30 in a nail-biter. Arkansas State covered by 15.0; Game went Under by 2.5. The market closed at Texas State -14.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas State -2.2 - a gap of 11.8 points toward Arkansas State, of which 10.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Texas State 4.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Texas State vs Arkansas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Centennial Bank Stadium were Clear, 73°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Texas State travels 588 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Arkansas State won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Arkansas State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 2.5 points.

How do Texas State and Arkansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas State (-4.7) over Arkansas State (-9.3) by 4.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arkansas State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arkansas State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Texas State and Arkansas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arkansas State won and Arkansas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Clear

73°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity63%
Wind8 mph ESE
Gusts17 mph
Wind map for Texas State at Arkansas State: aerial view of Centennial Bank Stadium, wind from the ESE at 8.1 mph, gusting to 17 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
03:00 PM CDT
Venue
Centennial Bank Stadium
Capacity
16,343
Elevation
302 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Texas StateAway Arkansas StateHome
This week588 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week485 miles
Season total2,401 miles1,462 miles
Body clock15:0015:00
Rest13 days7 days

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