Arkansas State defeated Texas State 31–30 in a nail-biter. Arkansas State covered by 15.0; Game went Under by 2.5. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Texas State 4.6 points stronger on a neutral field.
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Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Centennial Bank Stadium were Clear, 73.4°F, Feels Like 74.1°F with winds of 8.1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
73.4°F
Texas State travels 588 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Arkansas State won by 1 in a nail-biter.
Arkansas State covered the spread comfortably.
The total went Under by 2.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Texas State (-4.7) over Arkansas State (-9.3) by 4.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arkansas State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arkansas State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Arkansas State won and Arkansas State covered the spread.
