14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 6 • October 04, 2025, 08:00 PM UTC
Texas State @ Arkansas State
3-1
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -4.7
30 FINAL 31
1-4
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -9.3
Arkansas State covered by 14.5 | Game went Under by 2.5

By · Last updated

Arkansas State defeated Texas State 31–30 in a nail-biter. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Texas State 4.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

Texas State @ Arkansas State Preview

General Information

Week: Week 6
Kick Off (at stadium): 03:00 PM CDT
Stadium: Centennial Bank Stadium
Capacity: 16,343
Elevation: 302 ft
HFA Rating: 2.5
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Texas State -13.5
Total (O/U) 63.5
Expected Score TXST 38.5 - 25.0 ARST
Power Rank Implied Line Texas State +4.6
Prediction Markets Texas State 82% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

35.2°F

Wind Chill: 28.9°F
Wind: 7.6 mph WNW
Gusts: 15.9 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 80%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Texas State (Away)

This Week: 588.4 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 2401.5 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:00
Rest Days: 13

Arkansas State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 484.7 miles
Season Total: 2469.5 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:00
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Texas State -13.5
Total Points 63.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Texas State -4.7
Arkansas State -9.3
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 588 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Texas State +6
HFA: Centennial Bank Stadium
Capacity 16,343
Elevation 302 ft
Weather: Clear
Temperature 35.2°F
Wind Speed 7.6 mph
Your Line Arkansas State -4.6
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Texas State vs Arkansas State?

Texas State: Key Factors

Arkansas State: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Texas State travels 588 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Arkansas State won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Arkansas State covered the spread, covering the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 2.5 points.

How do Texas State and Arkansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Texas State (-4.7) over Arkansas State (-9.3) by 4.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arkansas State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arkansas State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Texas State and Arkansas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Arkansas State won and Arkansas State covered the spread.