Week 6
Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Syracuse18 @FINAL 31SMU , Week 6, Oct 4, 2025

3-2 ACC Power rating: -3.0
2-2 ACC Power rating: 9.8

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SMU -17.5
PM Implied
SMU -12.4
Blue Chip model
SMU -17.9
Edge
+0.4SMU
See details
◂ favors SYRfavors SMU ▸Market: SMU -17.5
12.8 › SMU
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2 SYR2 SMU4 SYR4 SMUModel: SMU -17.9

Betting information

Spread
SMU -17.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
SYR 19.5 – 37.0 SMU
Prediction markets
SMU 88% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

SMU defeated Syracuse 31–18 in a double-digit victory. Syracuse covered by 4.5; Game went Under by 7.5. The market closed at SMU -17.5 and the Blue Chip model made it SMU -17.9. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Syracuse vs SMU?

Syracuse

Quarterback Struggles Continue

Rickie Collins, making his second start since Steve Angeli's season-ending injury, completed 22 of 45 passes for 279 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions, all inside SMU's 20-yard line, highlighting ongoing issues at quarterback.

Red Zone Inefficiency

Syracuse failed to capitalize on early opportunities, including a first drive that reached SMU's 1-yard line but ended with no points, and three interceptions inside the red zone, which prevented them from keeping the game close.

Defensive Bright Spots

Despite the loss, Syracuse's defense forced a safety and held SMU to a field goal after a turnover, showing resilience, but they couldn't overcome the offensive turnovers and the 31-3 deficit.

Losing Streak and Upcoming Bye

The Orange have dropped two straight games for the first time under coach Fran Brown, and they have a bye week before hosting Pittsburgh on Oct. 18, giving them time to regroup and address offensive issues.

SMU

Quarterback Kevin Jennings' Career Day

Jennings threw for 285 yards and a career-high four touchdowns, completing 82.9% of his passes (29 of 35) with one interception. His performance was a key factor in SMU's 31-18 win, and he showed confidence and accuracy, which bodes well for future games.

Dominant First Half and Early Fourth Quarter

SMU built a commanding 31-3 lead early in the fourth quarter, thanks to Jennings' four touchdown passes and a field goal. This early dominance allowed the Mustangs to control the game and put pressure on Syracuse, which struggled to recover.

Strong Defensive Performance in Red Zone

SMU's defense intercepted Syracuse quarterback Rickie Collins three times, all inside the SMU 20-yard line, preventing potential scores. This red-zone efficiency was crucial in limiting Syracuse to just 18 points and securing the win.

Conference Winning Streak Continues

With this win, SMU extended its regular-season conference winning streak to 18 games, including nine in the ACC. This streak demonstrates the team's consistency and ability to perform in conference play, which is important for their upcoming game against Stanford.

Upcoming Home Game Against Stanford

SMU will host Stanford next Saturday. Given their strong offensive and defensive performances against Syracuse, the Mustangs will look to maintain their momentum and continue their conference winning streak against a Stanford team that has struggled this season.

What were the weather conditions for Syracuse vs SMU?

At kickoff, conditions at Gerald J. Ford Stadium were Sunny, 84°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Syracuse travels 1,324 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Syracuse arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

SMU won by 13 in a double-digit victory.

Syracuse covered the spread.

The total went Under by 7.5 points.

How do Syracuse and SMU compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor SMU (9.8) over Syracuse (-3.0) by 12.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. SMU brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

SMU won and Syracuse covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

84°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity42%
Wind5 mph SE
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Syracuse at SMU: aerial view of Gerald J. Ford Stadium, wind from the SE at 5.4 mph, gusting to 8.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Capacity
32,000
Elevation
594 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure SyracuseAway SMUHome
This week1,324 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total4,245 miles791 miles
Body clock15:3014:30
Rest7 days14 days