26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 16 Final 21 13 Final 21
Week 6 •
Raymond James Stadium

Charlotte26 @FINAL 54South Florida

1-3 American Power rating: -20.4
3-1 American Power rating: 10.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USF -27.5
PM Implied
USF -19.3
Blue Chip model
USF -33.0
Edge
+5.5USF
See details
◂ favors COLLEfavors USF ▸Market: USF -27.5
30.5 › USF
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USF
no impact
no impact
no impact
COLLE
2 COLLE2 USF4 COLLE4 USF6 COLLE6 USFModel: USF -33.0

Betting information

Spread
USF -27.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
COLLE 13.5 – 41.0 USF
Prediction markets
USF 97% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

South Florida defeated Charlotte 54–26 in a dominant performance. South Florida covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 25.5. The market closed at South Florida -27.5 and the Blue Chip model made it South Florida -33.0 - a gap of 5.5 points toward South Florida, of which 4.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Charlotte vs South Florida?

At kickoff, conditions at Raymond James Stadium were Partly cloudy, 76°F with winds of 15 mph. Wind of 15 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 20 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Charlotte travels 516 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

South Florida won by 28 in a dominant performance.

South Florida covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 25.5 points.

How do Charlotte and South Florida compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor South Florida (10.1) over Charlotte (-20.4) by 30.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. South Florida brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Charlotte and South Florida?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

South Florida won and South Florida covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 3, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

76°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity82%
Wind15 mph NE
Gusts20 mph
Wind map for Charlotte at South Florida: aerial view of Raymond James Stadium, wind from the NE at 15.2 mph, gusting to 20.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EDT
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Capacity
69,218
Elevation
72 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

CharlotteAway South FloridaHome
This week516 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total533 miles625 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest15 days13 days

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