DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Miami defeated Florida State 28–22 in a closely contested finish. Miami covered by 2.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Miami -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami -4.4. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.
Florida State committed three turnovers (two interceptions by Tommy Castellanos and one fumble), with both interceptions leading directly to Miami touchdowns. This marks a second consecutive game with multiple turnovers, following three turnovers in the loss to Virginia.
Florida State fell behind 28-3 entering the fourth quarter, a deficit too large to overcome despite a late rally. The team scored 19 points in the final period but could not recover the onside kicks needed to complete the comeback.
After averaging over 230 rushing yards per game in the first four contests, Florida State was held to just 132 yards on 38 carries (3.5 yards per carry) by Miami's defense. This inability to establish the run disrupted offensive rhythm and put more pressure on the passing game.
Despite the early deficit, Florida State's defense held Miami scoreless in the fourth quarter, allowing the offense to mount a comeback. However, the damage from the first three quarters was too significant to overcome.
Florida State will host Pittsburgh next Saturday. The Seminoles will need to clean up turnovers and re-establish their rushing attack to avoid a third straight loss and stay competitive in the ACC.
At kickoff, conditions at Doak Campbell Stadium were Clear, 74°F with winds of 11 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Clear
74°F
| Measure | MiamiAway | Florida StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 396 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Bye week | 1,238 miles |
| Season total | 396 miles | 1,238 miles |
| Body clock | 19:30 | 19:30 |
| Rest | 14 days | 8 days |
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