Miami defeated Florida State 28–22 in a closely contested finish. Miami covered by 2.5; Game went Under by 4.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at Doak Campbell Stadium were Clear, 74.1°F, Feels Like 78.1°F with winds of 10.5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
74.1°F
Florida State committed three turnovers (two interceptions by Tommy Castellanos and one fumble), with both interceptions leading directly to Miami touchdowns. This marks a second consecutive game with multiple turnovers, following three turnovers in the loss to Virginia.
Florida State fell behind 28-3 entering the fourth quarter, a deficit too large to overcome despite a late rally. The team scored 19 points in the final period but could not recover the onside kicks needed to complete the comeback.
After averaging over 230 rushing yards per game in the first four contests, Florida State was held to just 132 yards on 38 carries (3.5 yards per carry) by Miami's defense. This inability to establish the run disrupted offensive rhythm and put more pressure on the passing game.
Despite the early deficit, Florida State's defense held Miami scoreless in the fourth quarter, allowing the offense to mount a comeback. However, the damage from the first three quarters was too significant to overcome.
Florida State will host Pittsburgh next Saturday. The Seminoles will need to clean up turnovers and re-establish their rushing attack to avoid a third straight loss and stay competitive in the ACC.
Miami travels 396 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Miami won by 6 in a closely contested finish.
Miami covered the spread narrowly.
The total went Under by 4.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Miami (20.8) over Florida State (13.9) by 6.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Florida State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Florida State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Miami won and Miami covered the spread.
