14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 6 • October 04, 2025, 11:30 PM UTC
Miami @ Florida State
4-0
ACC
Power Rank: 20.8
28 FINAL 22
3-1
ACC
Power Rank: 13.9
Miami covered by 1.5 | Game went Under by 4.5

By · Last updated

Miami defeated Florida State 28–22 in a closely contested finish.

Miami @ Florida State Preview

General Information

Week: Week 6
Kick Off (at stadium): 07:30 PM EDT
Stadium: Doak Campbell Stadium
Capacity: 50,000
Elevation: 95 ft
HFA Rating: 2.3
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread Miami -4.5
Total (O/U) 54.5
Expected Score MIA 29.5 - 25.0 FSU
Power Rank Implied Line Miami +6.9
Prediction Markets Miami 63% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

32.2°F

Wind Chill: 27.9°F
Wind: 4.5 mph W
Gusts: 9.4 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 56%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Miami (Away)

This Week: 395.8 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 2393.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:30
Rest Days: 14

Florida State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 1238.4 miles
Season Total: 1496.8 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:30
Rest Days: 8

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Miami -4.5
Total Points 54.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Miami 20.8
Florida State 13.9
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 396 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Miami +6
HFA: Doak Campbell Stadium
Capacity 50,000
Elevation 95 ft
Weather: Clear
Temperature 32.2°F
Wind Speed 4.5 mph
Your Line Florida State -6.9
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Miami vs Florida State?

Miami: Key Factors

Florida State: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Miami travels 396 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Miami won by 6 in a closely contested finish.

Miami covered the spread, covering narrowly.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Doak Campbell Stadium?

At 32.2°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Miami and Florida State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Miami (20.8) over Florida State (13.9) by 6.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Florida State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Florida State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Miami and Florida State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Miami won and Miami covered the spread.