26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 16 Final 21 13 Final 21
Week 6 •
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium

Air Force31 @FINAL 34Navy

1-3 MW Power rating: -6.7
4-0 American Power rating: 0.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NAVY -13.5
PM Implied
NAVY -9.5
Blue Chip model
NAVY -9.8
Edge
-3.7AF
See details
◂ favors AFfavors NAVY ▸Market: NAVY -13.5
7.4 › NAVY
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NAVY
no impact
NAVY
no impact
no impact
2 AF2 NAVY4 AF4 NAVYModel: NAVY -9.8

Betting information

Spread
NAVY -13.5
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
AF 18.5 – 32.0 NAVY
Prediction markets
NAVY 82% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Navy defeated Air Force 34–31 in a nail-biter. Air Force covered by 10.5; Game went Over by 14.5. The market closed at Navy -13.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Navy -9.8 - a gap of 3.7 points toward Air Force, of which 2.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Air Force vs Navy?

Air Force

Offensive Explosion but Defensive Struggles

Air Force's offense showed significant improvement, with QB Liam Szarka throwing for 212 yards and 2 TDs while rushing for 152 yards and 2 TDs, and WR Bruin Fleischmann posting a career-high 166 receiving yards. However, the defense allowed 34 points and 339 passing yards, indicating vulnerability against balanced attacks.

Inability to Hold Leads

The Falcons led 31-28 in the fourth quarter but allowed Navy to tie and then take the lead on a field goal. This marks a recurring issue for Air Force, which has struggled to close out games, as seen in their 1-4 record.

Turnover and Special Teams Issues

A critical deflected pitch that was recovered by Navy at midfield in the final minutes sealed the loss. This turnover, combined with inconsistent special teams, highlights areas needing improvement for future games.

Resilient Offense but Need for Consistency

Despite the loss, Air Force's offense showed resilience by tying the game three times, including a 53-yard TD. However, they must sustain drives and avoid turnovers to compete against stronger opponents.

What were the weather conditions for Air Force vs Navy?

At kickoff, conditions at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium were Sunny, 77°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Air Force travels 1,519 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

Air Force arrives with a 2-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Navy won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Air Force covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 14.5 points.

How do Air Force and Navy compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Navy (0.7) over Air Force (-6.7) by 7.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Navy brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Air Force and Navy?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Navy won and Air Force covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

77°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity60%
Wind6 mph SSE
Gusts8 mph
Wind map for Air Force at Navy: aerial view of Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, wind from the SSE at 6 mph, gusting to 8.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EDT
Venue
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Capacity
34,000
Elevation
39 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Air ForceAway NavyHome
This week1,519 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total2,347 miles2,165 miles
Body clock10:0012:00
Rest7 days7 days

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