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Week 6 •
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)

Michigan State27 @FINAL 38Nebraska

3-1 Big Ten Power rating: 2.6
3-1 Big Ten Power rating: 12.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NEB -12.5
PM Implied
NEB -8.8
Blue Chip model
NEB -12.2
Edge
-0.3MSU
See details
◂ favors MSUfavors NEB ▸Market: NEB -12.5
9.5 › NEB
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NEB
no impact
NEB
no impact
MSU
1 MSU1 NEB2 MSU2 NEB3 MSU3 NEBModel: NEB -12.2

Betting information

Spread
NEB -12.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
MSU 18.0 – 30.5 NEB
Prediction markets
NEB 81% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Nebraska defeated Michigan State 38–27 in a double-digit victory. Michigan State covered by 1.5; Game went Over by 16.5. The market closed at Nebraska -12.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Nebraska -12.2. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What were the weather conditions for Michigan State vs Nebraska?

At kickoff, conditions at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) were Clear, 77°F with winds of 20 mph. Wind of 20 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 32 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Michigan State travels 644 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Michigan State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Nebraska won by 11 in a double-digit victory.

Michigan State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 16.5 points.

How do Michigan State and Nebraska compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Nebraska (12.1) over Michigan State (2.6) by 9.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Nebraska brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Michigan State and Nebraska?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Nebraska won and Michigan State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Clear

77°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity59%
Wind20 mph S
Gusts32 mph
Wind map for Michigan State at Nebraska: aerial view of Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE), wind from the S at 20.1 mph, gusting to 32.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
03:00 PM CDT
Venue
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Capacity
85,458
Elevation
1,204 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Michigan StateAway NebraskaHome
This week644 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total4,477 miles340 miles
Body clock16:0015:00
Rest13 days14 days

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