Week 6
Ohio Stadium

Minnesota3 @FINAL 42Ohio State , Week 6, Oct 4, 2025

3-1 Big Ten Power rating: 3.2
4-0 Big Ten Power rating: 28.8

How did the line hold up?

Market line
OSU -23.5
PM Implied
OSU -19.1
Blue Chip model
OSU -28.6
Edge
+5.1OSU
See details
◂ favors MINNfavors OSU ▸Market: OSU -23.5
25.6 › OSU
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
OSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 MINN2 OSU4 MINN4 OSUModel: OSU -28.6

Betting information

Spread
OSU -23.5
Total
42.5
Odds implied score
MINN 9.5 – 33.0 OSU
Prediction markets
OSU 95% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ohio State defeated Minnesota 42–3 in a dominant performance. Ohio State covered by 15.5; Game went Over by 2.5. The market closed at Ohio State -23.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Ohio State -28.6 - a gap of 5.1 points toward Ohio State, of which 4.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Minnesota vs Ohio State?

Ohio State

Julian Sayin's breakout performance

Sayin threw for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns, completing 23 of 27 passes, showing improved confidence and deep-ball accuracy. This performance suggests the offense is clicking and could be even more dangerous moving forward.

Carnell Tate emerges as deep threat

Tate had a career-high 183 receiving yards on 9 catches, including a 44-yard touchdown. His ability to stretch the field on first downs (5 catches on first plays of drives) adds a new dimension to the passing game.

Dominant defense continues streak

Ohio State held Minnesota to 3 points and 94 passing yards, marking the second game without allowing a touchdown and the fifth straight game holding opponents to 10 points or fewer (first time since 1979). The defense has not allowed a first-half or red-zone touchdown all season.

Balanced scoring attack

In addition to Sayin's passing, the Buckeyes had rushing touchdowns from CJ Donaldson, Bo Jackson, and Lincoln Kienholz, while Jeremiah Smith caught two touchdowns. This versatility makes the offense difficult to defend.

Next week: at No. 22 Illinois

Ohio State travels to face Illinois, who will be a tougher test. The Buckeyes' ability to maintain offensive rhythm and defensive dominance on the road will be key, especially against a ranked opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Minnesota vs Ohio State?

At kickoff, conditions at Ohio Stadium were Clear, 67°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Minnesota travels 623 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Minnesota arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Ohio State won by 39 in a dominant performance.

Ohio State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 2.5 points.

How do Minnesota and Ohio State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Ohio State (28.8) over Minnesota (3.2) by 25.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Ohio State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Ohio State won and Ohio State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Clear

67°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity77%
Wind5 mph SSE
Gusts11 mph
Wind map for Minnesota at Ohio State: aerial view of Ohio Stadium, wind from the SSE at 5.4 mph, gusting to 10.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM EDT
Venue
Ohio Stadium
Capacity
102,780
Elevation
719 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure MinnesotaAway Ohio StateHome
This week623 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game4,019 miles
Season total3,775 miles4,019 miles
Body clock18:3019:30
Rest7 days7 days