Week 6
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium

UL Monroe7 @FINAL 42Northwestern , Week 6, Oct 4, 2025

3-1 Sun Belt Power rating: -18.9
2-2 Big Ten Power rating: 2.6

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NU -12.5
PM Implied
NU -8.7
Blue Chip model
NU -24.7
Edge
+12.2NU
See details
◂ favors ULMfavors NU ▸Market: NU -12.5
21.5 › NU
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5 ULM5 NU10 ULM10 NUModel: NU -24.7

Betting information

Spread
NU -12.5
Total
43.5
Odds implied score
ULM 15.5 – 28.0 NU
Prediction markets
NU 80% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Northwestern defeated UL Monroe 42–7 in a dominant performance. Northwestern covered by 22.5; Game went Over by 5.5. The market closed at Northwestern -12.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Northwestern -24.7 - a gap of 12.2 points toward Northwestern, of which 11.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for UL Monroe vs Northwestern?

UL Monroe

Fast start but complete shutdown

The Warhawks scored on their opening drive (7 plays, 75 yards) but were held scoreless for the remainder of the game, managing only 273 total yards against Northwestern.

Offensive struggles after first drive

QB Aidan Armenta passed for 129 yards and a TD but was ineffective after the first drive, with key pass breakups and a sack by Northwestern's defense stalling drives.

Defensive vulnerabilities exposed

Northwestern scored on their first three possessions and amassed 515 total yards, indicating the Warhawks' defense struggled to contain both the pass and run.

Historical struggles against Big Ten

Louisiana-Monroe dropped to 0-6 all-time against Big Ten opponents, highlighting a pattern of difficulty competing against Power Five competition.

Next game: Sun Belt play at Coastal Carolina

The Warhawks will resume conference action on the road against Coastal Carolina, needing to rebound offensively and defensively to compete in the Sun Belt.

What were the weather conditions for UL Monroe vs Northwestern?

At kickoff, conditions at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium were Clear, 78°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UL Monroe travels 700 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Northwestern won by 35 in a dominant performance.

Northwestern covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 5.5 points.

How do UL Monroe and Northwestern compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Northwestern (2.6) over UL Monroe (-18.9) by 21.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Northwestern brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Northwestern won and Northwestern covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Clear

78°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity52%
Wind8 mph S
Gusts16 mph
Wind map for UL Monroe at Northwestern: aerial view of Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium, wind from the S at 8.1 mph, gusting to 16.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
Capacity
12,023
Elevation
581 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure UL MonroeAway NorthwesternHome
This week700 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total2,928 miles1,692 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days