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Week 6 •
Valley Children's Stadium

Nevada17 @FINAL 20Fresno State

1-3 MW Power rating: -16.2
4-1 MW Power rating: -4.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
FRES -12.5
PM Implied
FRES -9.5
Blue Chip model
FRES -14.4
Edge
+1.9FRES
See details
◂ favors NEVfavors FRES ▸Market: FRES -12.5
11.9 › FRES
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
FRES
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 NEV1 FRES2 NEV2 FRES3 NEV3 FRESModel: FRES -14.4

Betting information

Spread
FRES -12.5
Total
45.5
Odds implied score
NEV 16.5 – 29.0 FRES
Prediction markets
FRES 82% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Fresno State defeated Nevada 20–17 in a nail-biter. Nevada covered by 9.5; Game went Under by 8.5. The market closed at Fresno State -12.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Fresno State -14.4, an edge of 1.9 points toward Fresno State.

What were the weather conditions for Nevada vs Fresno State?

At kickoff, conditions at Valley Children's Stadium were Clear, 62°F with winds of 1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Nevada travels 189 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Fresno State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Nevada covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 8.5 points.

How do Nevada and Fresno State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Fresno State (-4.3) over Nevada (-16.2) by 11.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Fresno State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Nevada and Fresno State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Fresno State won and Nevada covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 5, 2025 Game-time

Clear

62°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity60%
Wind1 mph ENE
Gusts2 mph
Wind map for Nevada at Fresno State: aerial view of Valley Children's Stadium, wind from the ENE at 1.1 mph, gusting to 2.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM PDT
Venue
Valley Children's Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
351 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

NevadaAway Fresno StateHome
This week189 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total8,215 miles8,853 miles
Body clock19:3019:30
Rest15 days14 days

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