Week 6
Bryant-Denny Stadium

Vanderbilt14 @FINAL 30Alabama , Week 6, Oct 4, 2025

5-0 SEC Power rating: 17.5
3-1 SEC Power rating: 24.9

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ALA -13.5
PM Implied
ALA -9.1
Blue Chip model
ALA -10.9
Edge
-2.6VAN
See details
◂ favors VANfavors ALA ▸Market: ALA -13.5
7.4 › ALA
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2 VAN2 ALA4 VAN4 ALAModel: ALA -10.9

Betting information

Spread
ALA -13.5
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
VAN 22.0 – 35.5 ALA
Prediction markets
ALA 81% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Alabama defeated Vanderbilt 30–14 in a double-digit victory. Alabama covered by 2.5; Game went Under by 13.5. The market closed at Alabama -13.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Alabama -10.9, an edge of 2.6 points toward Vanderbilt.

What are the key factors for Vanderbilt vs Alabama?

Vanderbilt

Second-Half Offensive Struggles

Vanderbilt's offense failed to maintain rhythm in the second half, managing only 9 rushing yards after averaging 12.7 yards per carry in the first half. This allowed Alabama to control time of possession and limit scoring opportunities.

Turnover Issues in Critical Moments

Quarterback Diego Pavia threw an interception and lost a fumble, both occurring in the red zone. These turnovers prevented Vanderbilt from scoring in two key situations, directly impacting the final score.

Need for Downfield Passing

The Commodores' run game showed promise, but they struggled to throw the ball downfield effectively. To compete as a serious SEC contender, they must develop a more balanced passing attack.

Competitive Loss and Ranking Outlook

Despite the loss, Vanderbilt's competitive performance on the road against a top-10 opponent may keep them in the AP Top 25, though they could slip slightly. The team has a bye week before hosting No. 13 LSU.

Alabama

Simpson's Efficient Passing

Ty Simpson threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns with a 76.7% completion rate, marking his third game above 75% in four starts, solidifying his status as a top SEC quarterback.

Red Zone Dominance

Alabama converted all four red zone trips into points, while forcing two critical turnovers in the red zone that prevented Vanderbilt from scoring, highlighting a key advantage in tight games.

Second-Half Defensive Adjustment

After allowing 126 rushing yards on 12.7 yards per carry in the first half, Alabama limited Vanderbilt to just nine rushing yards in the second half, showcasing effective halftime adjustments.

Jam Miller's Ground Game

Running back Jam Miller rushed for 136 yards and a touchdown, providing a balanced offensive attack that complemented Simpson's passing and controlled the clock.

Momentum from Consecutive Top-20 Wins

Alabama has now beaten two top-20 opponents in a row, building confidence and likely rising in the AP poll, setting a positive tone for their upcoming road game at No. 19 Missouri.

What were the weather conditions for Vanderbilt vs Alabama?

At kickoff, conditions at Bryant-Denny Stadium were Cloudy, 78°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Vanderbilt travels 207 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Alabama won by 16 in a double-digit victory.

Alabama covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 13.5 points.

How do Vanderbilt and Alabama compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Alabama (24.9) over Vanderbilt (17.5) by 7.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Alabama brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Alabama won and Alabama covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

78°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity53%
Wind5 mph E
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Vanderbilt at Alabama: aerial view of Bryant-Denny Stadium, wind from the E at 4.5 mph, gusting to 8.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Capacity
100,077
Elevation
253 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure VanderbiltAway AlabamaHome
This week207 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game493 miles
Season total1,653 miles1,032 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days