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Week 6 •
Arizona Stadium

Oklahoma State13 @FINAL 41Arizona

1-3 Big 12 Power rating: -14.9
3-1 Big 12 Power rating: 9.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ARIZ -21.5
PM Implied
ARIZ -14.4
Blue Chip model
ARIZ -28.0
Edge
+6.5ARIZ
See details
◂ favors OKSTfavors ARIZ ▸Market: ARIZ -21.5
24.4 › ARIZ
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARIZ
no impact
ARIZ
no impact
ARIZ
2 OKST2 ARIZ4 OKST4 ARIZ6 OKST6 ARIZModel: ARIZ -28.0

Betting information

Spread
ARIZ -21.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
OKST 17.5 – 39.0 ARIZ
Prediction markets
ARIZ 92% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arizona defeated Oklahoma State 41–13 in a dominant performance. Arizona covered by 6.5; Game went Under by 2.5. The market closed at Arizona -21.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Arizona -28.0 - a gap of 6.5 points toward Arizona, of which 5.1 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Oklahoma State vs Arizona?

Oklahoma State

Defensive Struggles Continue

Oklahoma State's defense, now under new coordinator Clint Bowen after Todd Grantham's firing, allowed 478 total yards and 41 points to Arizona, including 376 passing yards and 5 TDs. The unit remains last in the Big 12 and 129th nationally, a major concern heading into next week.

Offensive Inefficiency

The Cowboys managed only 158 total yards and 7 first downs, with their offense unable to sustain drives or score consistently. This lack of production, despite trying misdirection plays, highlights a systemic issue that must be addressed before facing Houston.

Turnover Troubles

Oklahoma State committed two turnovers and had a combined three turnovers in the ugly third quarter, contributing to Arizona's 38-6 lead. Ball security will be critical to avoid falling behind early against Houston.

Losing Streak Continues

The loss extends Oklahoma State's Big 12 losing streak to 11 games, and the team is now 1-4 overall. The mounting losses and coaching changes create a challenging environment for morale and preparation.

Next Opponent: Houston

Oklahoma State hosts Houston next Saturday. To have a chance, the Cowboys must improve both defensive coverage and offensive execution, as Houston will look to exploit the same weaknesses Arizona did.

What were the weather conditions for Oklahoma State vs Arizona?

At kickoff, conditions at Arizona Stadium were Clear, 81°F, heat index 80°F with winds of 13 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Oklahoma State travels 838 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Arizona won by 28 in a dominant performance.

Arizona covered the spread.

The total went Under by 2.5 points.

How do Oklahoma State and Arizona compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arizona (9.5) over Oklahoma State (-14.9) by 24.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Arizona brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Oklahoma State and Arizona?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arizona won and Arizona covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Clear

81°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity28%
Wind13 mph SW
Gusts18 mph
Heat index80°F
Wind map for Oklahoma State at Arizona: aerial view of Arizona Stadium, wind from the SW at 13 mph, gusting to 18.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM MST
Venue
Arizona Stadium
Capacity
50,782
Elevation
2,438 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Oklahoma StateAway ArizonaHome
This week838 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game2,333 miles
Season total3,788 miles2,333 miles
Body clock14:0012:00
Rest7 days7 days

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