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Week 6 •
Aggie Memorial Stadium

Sam Houston10 @FINAL 37New Mexico State

0-4 CUSA Power rating: -20.3
2-2 CUSA Power rating: -18.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SHSU -2.5
PM Implied
SHSU -1.2
Blue Chip model
NMSU -4.2
Edge
+6.7NMSU
See details
◂ favors SHSUfavors NMSU ▸Market: SHSU -2.5
NMSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
NMSU
SHSU
NMSU
NMSU
no impact
2 SHSU2 NMSU4 SHSU4 NMSU6 SHSU6 NMSUModel: NMSU -4.2

Betting information

Spread
SHSU -2.5
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
SHSU 27.5 – 25.0 NMSU
Prediction markets
SHSU 55% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

New Mexico State defeated Sam Houston 37–10 to secure a comfortable win. New Mexico State covered by 29.5; Game went Under by 5.5. The market closed at Sam Houston -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it New Mexico State -4.2 - a gap of 6.7 points toward New Mexico State, of which 4.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Sam Houston vs New Mexico State?

At kickoff, conditions at Aggie Memorial Stadium were Clear, 70°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Sam Houston travels 670 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Sam Houston arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

New Mexico State won by 27 to secure a comfortable win.

New Mexico State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

How do Sam Houston and New Mexico State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor New Mexico State (-18.8) over Sam Houston (-20.3) by 1.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. New Mexico State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Sam Houston and New Mexico State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

New Mexico State won and New Mexico State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 3, 2025 Game-time

Clear

70°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity45%
Wind6 mph ESE
Gusts13 mph
Wind map for Sam Houston at New Mexico State: aerial view of Aggie Memorial Stadium, wind from the ESE at 6 mph, gusting to 12.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM MDT
Venue
Aggie Memorial Stadium
Capacity
28,853
Elevation
3,970 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Sam HoustonAway New Mexico StateHome
This week670 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week384 miles
Season total10,053 miles2,030 miles
Body clock20:0019:00
Rest12 days6 days

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