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Week 6 •
Snapdragon Stadium

Colorado State24 @FINAL 45San Diego State

1-3 MW Power rating: -10.6
3-1 MW Power rating: 1.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SDSU -4.5
PM Implied
SDSU -4.4
Blue Chip model
SDSU -15.4
Edge
+10.9SDSU
See details
◂ favors CSUfavors SDSU ▸Market: SDSU -4.5
SDSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SDSU
no impact
SDSU
no impact
no impact
5 CSU5 SDSU10 CSU10 SDSUModel: SDSU -15.4

Betting information

Spread
SDSU -4.5
Total
40.5
Odds implied score
CSU 18.0 – 22.5 SDSU
Prediction markets
SDSU 67% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

San Diego State defeated Colorado State 45–24 to secure a comfortable win. San Diego State covered by 16.5; Game went Over by 28.5. The market closed at San Diego State -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it San Diego State -15.4 - a gap of 10.9 points toward San Diego State, of which 9.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Colorado State vs San Diego State?

At kickoff, conditions at Snapdragon Stadium were Overcast, 62°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Colorado State travels 856 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Colorado State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

San Diego State won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

San Diego State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 28.5 points.

How do Colorado State and San Diego State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor San Diego State (1.8) over Colorado State (-10.6) by 12.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. San Diego State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Colorado State and San Diego State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

San Diego State won and San Diego State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

62°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity88%
Wind5 mph S
Gusts7 mph
Wind map for Colorado State at San Diego State: aerial view of Snapdragon Stadium, wind from the S at 4.7 mph, gusting to 6.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM PDT
Venue
Snapdragon Stadium
Capacity
35,000
Elevation
89 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

Colorado StateAway San Diego StateHome
This week856 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game3,346 miles
Season total2,822 miles5,271 miles
Body clock20:3019:30
Rest7 days7 days

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