Michigan defeated Wisconsin 24–10 in a double-digit victory. Wisconsin covered by 3.5; Game went Under by 8.5.
Adjust any factor to update your projected line
Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Michigan Stadium were Cloudy, 83.5°F, Heat Index 85.1°F with winds of 10.1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
83.5°F
Wisconsin opened the game with a 12-play, 75-yard touchdown drive but failed to score again until a late field goal, highlighting an inability to sustain offensive momentum and finish drives.
Hunter Simmons, making his first start, completed 18 of 29 passes for 177 yards with an interception, showing poise but lacking the explosive plays needed to keep pace with Michigan's offense.
Despite entering the game allowing just 50 rushing yards per game, Wisconsin gave up 117 yards on the ground to Justice Haynes, including a 43-yard run, indicating vulnerability against strong running attacks.
Coach Luke Fickell fell to 15-16 in his third season and 0-8 against AP Top 25 teams at Wisconsin, raising concerns about the team's ability to compete against ranked opponents.
Fickell emphasized that every play will be analyzed to identify players with a competitive spirit, suggesting potential lineup changes or increased urgency as the team prepares for Iowa.
Freshman QB Bryce Underwood threw for a season-high 270 yards and a TD, while RB Justice Haynes rushed for 117 yards and two TDs, marking his third straight 100-yard game. This balanced attack overcame a slow start and pulled away in the second half.
After allowing a 12-play, 75-yard TD drive to open the game, Michigan's defense clamped down, holding Wisconsin to just a field goal the rest of the way. Safety Rod Moore's interception in the third quarter was a key momentum swing.
Safety Rod Moore made his first home start since 2024 after recovering from knee surgeries, and his energy and playmaking (interception) were praised by teammates and coaches. His presence bolsters the secondary.
Michigan outscored Wisconsin 14-0 in the second half, with Underwood's 29-yard TD pass to Donaven McCulley and Haynes' short TD run sealing the win. The team's halftime message to 'dominate' was executed effectively.
Michigan travels to face USC next. The Wolverines' improved passing game and stout run defense will be tested against a talented Trojans offense. Key will be maintaining second-half intensity and avoiding slow starts.
Wisconsin travels 294 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Wisconsin arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.
Michigan won by 14 in a double-digit victory.
Wisconsin covered the spread.
The total went Under by 8.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Michigan (15.2) over Wisconsin (3.4) by 11.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Michigan brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Michigan won and Wisconsin covered the spread.
