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Week 6 •
Nippert Stadium

Iowa State30 @FINAL 38Cincinnati

5-0 Big 12 Power rating: 9.8
3-1 Big 12 Power rating: 10.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
CIN -1.5
PM Implied
CIN -0.1
Blue Chip model
CIN -3.5
Edge
+2.0CIN
See details
◂ favors ISUfavors CIN ▸Market: CIN -1.5
CIN
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
CIN
no impact
no impact
no impact
CIN
1 ISU1 CIN2 ISU2 CIN3 ISU3 CINModel: CIN -3.5

Betting information

Spread
CIN -1.5
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
ISU 27.0 – 28.5 CIN
Prediction markets
CIN 51% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Cincinnati defeated Iowa State 38–30 in a one-score game. Cincinnati covered by 6.5; Game went Over by 12.5. The market closed at Cincinnati -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Cincinnati -3.5, an edge of 2.0 points toward Cincinnati.

What are the key factors for Iowa State vs Cincinnati?

Iowa State

Slow Start Dooms Cyclones

Iowa State fell behind 17-0 in the first quarter and 31-7 late in the second, a deficit too large to overcome despite a strong second-half rally. The slow start was exacerbated by uncharacteristic penalties (5 for 35 yards in the first half) that extended Cincinnati drives, including a key offside on third down that led to the Bearcats' first touchdown.

Injury-Riddled Roster Shows Resilience

The Cyclones played without 16 players, including all-Big 12 defensive backs Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams, and their top two kickers. Despite these absences, Iowa State fought back to within eight points late in the fourth quarter, demonstrating depth and resilience. However, the missing personnel, especially in the secondary and special teams, were factors in the loss.

Rocco Becht's Gutsy Performance

Quarterback Rocco Becht threw for 314 yards and two touchdowns and added two rushing touchdowns, leading the Cyclones' comeback attempt. His ability to move the offense in the second half (scoring on the final play of the first half and opening drive of the third quarter) shows he can be a focal point, but the early deficit put too much pressure on the offense.

Special Teams Struggles

With top kickers out, freshman Chase Smith missed a 35-yard field goal in the second quarter, which could have cut into the early lead. The missed kick and the inability to attempt longer field goals likely affected coaching decisions and limited scoring opportunities, a concern heading into next week.

Next Week at Colorado

Iowa State (5-1, 2-1) travels to Colorado next Saturday. The Cyclones will need to address their slow starts and special teams issues while hoping for healthier personnel. The resilience shown in the second half bodes well, but they must avoid digging another early hole against a Colorado team that can exploit mistakes.

What were the weather conditions for Iowa State vs Cincinnati?

At kickoff, conditions at Nippert Stadium were Partly cloudy, 82°F, heat index 83°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Iowa State travels 519 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Iowa State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Cincinnati won by 8 in a one-score game.

Cincinnati covered the spread.

The total went Over by 12.5 points.

How do Iowa State and Cincinnati compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Cincinnati (10.3) over Iowa State (9.8) by 0.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Cincinnati brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Iowa State and Cincinnati?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Cincinnati won and Cincinnati covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

82°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity49%
Wind2 mph SE
Gusts2 mph
Heat index83°F
Wind map for Iowa State at Cincinnati: aerial view of Nippert Stadium, wind from the SE at 1.6 mph, gusting to 1.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EDT
Venue
Nippert Stadium
Capacity
38,088
Elevation
778 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Iowa StateAway CincinnatiHome
This week519 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,154 miles
Season total9,209 miles2,225 miles
Body clock11:0012:00
Rest7 days7 days

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