Baylor defeated Kansas State 35–34 in a nail-biter. Kansas State covered by 3.5; Game went Over by 9.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at McLane Stadium were Sunny, 87.4°F, Heat Index 89.6°F with winds of 5.8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
87.4°F
Kansas State led 31-17 late in the third quarter but allowed Baylor to score 18 unanswered points in the fourth, including a pick-six and a game-winning field goal. This marks the third time this season the Wildcats have lost after leading or being tied in the fourth quarter, and their fifth one-score game in six contests.
After driving to the Baylor 2-yard line with a chance to seal the win, Kansas State settled for a 22-yard field goal instead of a touchdown. This conservative play-calling gave Baylor the opportunity to take the lead on the next possession, highlighting a recurring issue in close games.
Johnson threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for a score, but his critical interception in the fourth quarter was returned for a go-ahead touchdown. His dual-threat ability kept drives alive, but the turnover ultimately decided the game.
The Wildcats' defense allowed Baylor to score on three consecutive fourth-quarter drives, including a 42-yard catch and a spectacular one-handed grab that set up a touchdown. The inability to get stops when needed most has been a pattern in their losses.
Kansas State will host TCU next Saturday. Given their pattern of close losses, bettors should expect another tight contest, but the Wildcats must improve their fourth-quarter execution and red zone efficiency to secure a win.
Kansas State travels 528 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Baylor won by 1 in a nail-biter.
Kansas State covered the spread.
The total went Over by 9.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Baylor (11.5) over Kansas State (8.3) by 3.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Baylor brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Baylor won and Kansas State covered the spread.
