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Week 6 •
McLane Stadium

Kansas State34 @FINAL 35Baylor

2-3 Big 12 Power rating: 8.3
3-2 Big 12 Power rating: 11.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BAY -4.5
PM Implied
BAY -3.8
Blue Chip model
BAY -5.6
Edge
+1.1BAY
See details
◂ favors KSUfavors BAY ▸Market: BAY -4.5
3.2 › BAY
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BAY
no impact
no impact
no impact
BAY
1 KSU1 BAY2 KSU2 BAYModel: BAY -5.6

Betting information

Spread
BAY -4.5
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
KSU 27.5 – 32.0 BAY
Prediction markets
BAY 65% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Baylor defeated Kansas State 35–34 in a nail-biter. Kansas State covered by 3.5; Game went Over by 9.5. The market closed at Baylor -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Baylor -5.6, an edge of 1.1 points toward Baylor.

What are the key factors for Kansas State vs Baylor?

Kansas State

Fourth-Quarter Collapse Continues

Kansas State led 31-17 late in the third quarter but allowed Baylor to score 18 unanswered points in the fourth, including a pick-six and a game-winning field goal. This marks the third time this season the Wildcats have lost after leading or being tied in the fourth quarter, and their fifth one-score game in six contests.

Red Zone Inefficiency Proves Costly

After driving to the Baylor 2-yard line with a chance to seal the win, Kansas State settled for a 22-yard field goal instead of a touchdown. This conservative play-calling gave Baylor the opportunity to take the lead on the next possession, highlighting a recurring issue in close games.

Avery Johnson's Mixed Performance

Johnson threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for a score, but his critical interception in the fourth quarter was returned for a go-ahead touchdown. His dual-threat ability kept drives alive, but the turnover ultimately decided the game.

Defensive Struggles in the Fourth Quarter

The Wildcats' defense allowed Baylor to score on three consecutive fourth-quarter drives, including a 42-yard catch and a spectacular one-handed grab that set up a touchdown. The inability to get stops when needed most has been a pattern in their losses.

Upcoming Home Game Against TCU

Kansas State will host TCU next Saturday. Given their pattern of close losses, bettors should expect another tight contest, but the Wildcats must improve their fourth-quarter execution and red zone efficiency to secure a win.

What were the weather conditions for Kansas State vs Baylor?

At kickoff, conditions at McLane Stadium were Sunny, 87°F, heat index 90°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Kansas State travels 528 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Baylor won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Kansas State covered the spread.

The total went Over by 9.5 points.

How do Kansas State and Baylor compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Baylor (11.5) over Kansas State (8.3) by 3.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Baylor brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Kansas State and Baylor?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Baylor won and Kansas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 4, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

87°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity42%
Wind6 mph ESE
Gusts7 mph
Heat index90°F
Wind map for Kansas State at Baylor: aerial view of McLane Stadium, wind from the ESE at 5.8 mph, gusting to 6.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 6
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
McLane Stadium
Capacity
45,140
Elevation
404 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Kansas StateAway BaylorHome
This week528 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game630 miles
Season total10,679 miles810 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days7 days

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