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Week 10 •
Doyt L. Perry Stadium

Buffalo28 @FINAL 3Bowling Green

4-4 MAC Power rating: -8.4
3-5 MAC Power rating: -7.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BGSU -2.5
PM Implied
BGSU -0.8
Blue Chip model
BGSU -1.5
Edge
-1.0BUF
See details
◂ favors BUFfavors BGSU ▸Market: BGSU -2.5
BGSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BGSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
BUF
1 BUF1 BGSU2 BUF2 BGSUModel: BGSU -1.5

Betting information

Spread
BGSU -2.5
Total
44.5
Odds implied score
BUF 21.0 – 23.5 BGSU
Prediction markets
BGSU 53% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Buffalo defeated Bowling Green 28–3 to secure a comfortable win. Buffalo covered by 27.5; Game went Under by 13.5. The market closed at Bowling Green -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Bowling Green -1.5, an edge of 1.0 points toward Buffalo.

What are the key factors for Buffalo vs Bowling Green?

Bowling Green

Offensive Struggles Continue

Bowling Green managed only 216 total yards and 3 points, with quarterback Ta'Quan Roberson passing for 136 yards but failing to generate consistent drives or touchdowns.

Defensive Bright Spots

Gideon Lampron (11 tackles) and Jalen McClendon (8 solo tackles) led a defense that forced a three-and-out early in the third quarter, but the unit was ultimately worn down by Buffalo's rushing attack.

Special Teams Vulnerability

Victor Snow's 65-yard punt return for a touchdown in the third quarter highlighted a critical special teams breakdown that sealed the game for Buffalo.

Turnover Issues

A forced fumble by Red Murdock (NCAA record) led to a Buffalo touchdown just before halftime, underscoring Bowling Green's inability to protect the ball in key moments.

Rushing Defense Concerns

Al-Jay Henderson rushed for 119 yards and a 41-yard touchdown, exposing Bowling Green's struggles to contain explosive runs, which will be a focus for the next game.

What were the weather conditions for Buffalo vs Bowling Green?

At kickoff, conditions at Doyt L. Perry Stadium were Partly cloudy, 55°F with winds of 11 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Buffalo travels 273 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Buffalo won by 25 to secure a comfortable win.

Buffalo covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 13.5 points.

How do Buffalo and Bowling Green compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Bowling Green (-7.5) over Buffalo (-8.4) by 0.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Bowling Green brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 0.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Buffalo and Bowling Green?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Buffalo won and Buffalo covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 1, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

55°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity46%
Wind11 mph WSW
Gusts13 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Buffalo at Bowling Green: aerial view of Doyt L. Perry Stadium, wind from the WSW at 10.5 mph, gusting to 13.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EDT
Venue
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Capacity
33,527
Elevation
682 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

BuffaloAway Bowling GreenHome
This week273 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game243 miles
Season total2,744 miles1,386 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
Rest7 days7 days

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