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Week 10 •
Albertsons Stadium

Fresno State30 @FINAL 7Boise State

5-3 MW Power rating: -5.1
6-2 MW Power rating: 9.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BOIS -17.5
PM Implied
BOIS -13.1
Blue Chip model
BOIS -18.3
Edge
+0.8BOIS
See details
◂ favors FRESfavors BOIS ▸Market: BOIS -17.5
15.0 › BOIS
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BOIS
no impact
no impact
BOIS
no impact
1 FRES1 BOIS2 FRES2 BOIS3 FRES3 BOISModel: BOIS -18.3

Betting information

Spread
BOIS -17.5
Total
47.5
Odds implied score
FRES 15.0 – 32.5 BOIS
Prediction markets
BOIS 90% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Fresno State defeated Boise State 30–7 to secure a comfortable win. Fresno State covered by 40.5; Game went Under by 10.5. The market closed at Boise State -17.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Boise State -18.3. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Boise State 15.0 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Fresno State vs Boise State?

At kickoff, conditions at Albertsons Stadium were Clear, 64°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Fresno State travels 505 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Fresno State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Fresno State won by 23 to secure a comfortable win.

Fresno State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 10.5 points.

How do Fresno State and Boise State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Boise State (9.9) over Fresno State (-5.1) by 15.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Boise State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Fresno State and Boise State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Fresno State won and Fresno State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 1, 2025 Game-time

Clear

64°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity31%
Wind7 mph SE
Gusts14 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Fresno State at Boise State: aerial view of Albertsons Stadium, wind from the SE at 6.7 mph, gusting to 14.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
01:30 PM MDT
Venue
Albertsons Stadium
Capacity
36,387
Elevation
2,723 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Fresno StateAway Boise StateHome
This week505 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game674 miles
Season total11,024 miles9,375 miles
Body clock12:3013:30
Rest7 days7 days

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