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Week 10 •
Falcon Stadium

Army20 @FINAL 17Air Force

3-4 American Power rating: -1.3
2-5 MW Power rating: -8.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ARMY -1.5
PM Implied
ARMY -0.1
Blue Chip model
ARMY -2.5
Edge
-1.0ARMY
See details
◂ favors ARMYfavors AF ▸Market: ARMY -1.5
‹ 6.9 ARMY
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
AF
no impact
AF
AF
no impact
1 ARMY1 AF2 ARMY2 AFModel: ARMY -2.5

Betting information

Spread
ARMY -1.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
ARMY 25.0 – 23.5 AF
Prediction markets
ARMY 51% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Army defeated Air Force 20–17 in a nail-biter. Army covered by 1.5; Game went Under by 11.5. The market closed at Army -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Army -2.5, an edge of 1.0 points toward Army.

What are the key factors for Army vs Air Force?

Air Force

Turnover Troubles Continue

Air Force committed three turnovers (two interceptions and one fumble) which directly led to Army scoring opportunities and ultimately cost them the game. This is a recurring issue that must be addressed to improve their chances in future games.

Late Game Collapse

After taking a 17-17 tie with 1:26 left, the defense allowed a quick 42-yard pass and the game-winning field goal. The inability to stop Army's final drive highlights a lack of clutch defensive execution in critical moments.

Offensive Struggles Against Army

Air Force had not scored a touchdown against Army in 32 straight possessions until the third quarter. This indicates a systemic offensive difficulty against this opponent, which may carry over to future games if not corrected.

Quarterback Performance Mixed

Liam Szarka threw for 161 yards and two rushing touchdowns but also had two interceptions. While he showed ability to move the ball, his turnovers were costly and need to be minimized for the team to succeed.

Record Drops to 2-6

With the loss, Air Force falls to 2-6 on the season, making a bowl game increasingly unlikely. The team must focus on building momentum and improving fundamentals in the remaining games.

What were the weather conditions for Army vs Air Force?

At kickoff, conditions at Falcon Stadium were Partly cloudy, 58°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Army travels 1,634 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Army won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Army covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 11.5 points.

How do Army and Air Force compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Army (-1.3) over Air Force (-8.2) by 6.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Air Force faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Air Force brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Army and Air Force?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Army won and Army covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 1, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

58°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity20%
Wind5 mph ESE
Gusts9 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Army at Air Force: aerial view of Falcon Stadium, wind from the ESE at 4.5 mph, gusting to 8.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
10:00 AM MDT
Venue
Falcon Stadium
Capacity
39,441
Elevation
6,657 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

ArmyAway Air ForceHome
This week1,634 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total9,093 miles5,069 miles
Body clock12:0010:00
Rest14 days14 days

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