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Week 10 •
Razorback Stadium

Mississippi State38 @FINAL 35Arkansas

4-4 SEC Power rating: 14.0
2-6 SEC Power rating: 10.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ARK -5.5
PM Implied
ARK -3.6
Blue Chip model
MSST -2.8
Edge
-8.3MSST
See details
◂ favors MSSTfavors ARK ▸Market: ARK -5.5
MSST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARK
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 MSST5 ARKModel: MSST -2.8

Betting information

Spread
ARK -5.5
Total
66.5
Odds implied score
MSST 30.5 – 36.0 ARK
Prediction markets
ARK 64% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Mississippi State defeated Arkansas 38–35 in a nail-biter. Mississippi State covered by 8.5; Game went Over by 6.5. The market closed at Arkansas -5.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Mississippi State -2.8 - a gap of 8.3 points toward Mississippi State, of which 7.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Mississippi State vs Arkansas?

Mississippi State

Resilient Comeback Victory

Mississippi State rallied from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 38-35, snapping a four-game losing streak and securing their first SEC win since October 2023. This demonstrates strong mental toughness and ability to perform under pressure.

Quarterback Shapen's Leadership

Blake Shapen returned from a hit that forced him out for part of the third quarter to lead three scoring drives in the fourth quarter, including the game-winning 18-yard touchdown pass on fourth down. His composure and clutch play are critical for upcoming games.

Explosive Passing Attack

Wide receivers Anthony Evans III (5 catches, 111 yards, 2 TDs) and Brenan Thompson (6 catches, 107 yards) provided big plays, including a 45-yard TD and a key 32-yard catch on fourth down. This deep threat will be vital against Georgia's defense.

Defensive Improvement in Clutch Moments

After allowing 35 points through three quarters, the defense held Arkansas to zero points and forced a punt on their final three drives, including a three-and-out. This late-game resilience is a positive sign for facing high-powered offenses.

Upcoming Challenge Against Georgia

Mississippi State hosts Georgia on Nov. 8. The Bulldogs will need to replicate their fourth-quarter execution and limit penalties (Arkansas had 18 for 193 yards) to compete with the top-ranked team.

What were the weather conditions for Mississippi State vs Arkansas?

At kickoff, conditions at Razorback Stadium were Clear, 46°F, wind chill 44°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Mississippi State travels 355 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Mississippi State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Mississippi State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 6.5 points.

How do Mississippi State and Arkansas compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Mississippi State (14.0) over Arkansas (10.4) by 3.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arkansas faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arkansas brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 0.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Mississippi State and Arkansas?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Mississippi State won and Mississippi State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 1, 2025 Game-time

Clear

46°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity71%
Wind4 mph NNW
Gusts9 mph
Wind chill44°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Mississippi State at Arkansas: aerial view of Razorback Stadium, wind from the NNW at 4 mph, gusting to 8.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
03:00 PM CDT
Venue
Razorback Stadium
Capacity
76,212
Elevation
1,358 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Mississippi StateAway ArkansasHome
This week355 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total2,547 miles2,215 miles
Body clock15:0015:00
Rest7 days7 days

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