Mississippi State defeated Arkansas 38–35 in a nail-biter. Mississippi State covered by 8.5; Game went Over by 6.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at Razorback Stadium were Clear, 46.4°F, Wind Chill 43.7°F with winds of 4.0 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
46.4°F
Mississippi State rallied from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 38-35, snapping a four-game losing streak and securing their first SEC win since October 2023. This demonstrates strong mental toughness and ability to perform under pressure.
Blake Shapen returned from a hit that forced him out for part of the third quarter to lead three scoring drives in the fourth quarter, including the game-winning 18-yard touchdown pass on fourth down. His composure and clutch play are critical for upcoming games.
Wide receivers Anthony Evans III (5 catches, 111 yards, 2 TDs) and Brenan Thompson (6 catches, 107 yards) provided big plays, including a 45-yard TD and a key 32-yard catch on fourth down. This deep threat will be vital against Georgia's defense.
After allowing 35 points through three quarters, the defense held Arkansas to zero points and forced a punt on their final three drives, including a three-and-out. This late-game resilience is a positive sign for facing high-powered offenses.
Mississippi State hosts Georgia on Nov. 8. The Bulldogs will need to replicate their fourth-quarter execution and limit penalties (Arkansas had 18 for 193 yards) to compete with the top-ranked team.
Mississippi State travels 355 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Mississippi State won by 3 in a nail-biter.
Mississippi State covered the spread by a solid margin.
The total went Over by 6.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Mississippi State (14.0) over Arkansas (10.4) by 3.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arkansas faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arkansas brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Mississippi State won and Mississippi State covered the spread.
