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Week 10 •
Bobcat Stadium (TX)

James Madison52 @FINAL 20Texas State

6-1 Sun Belt Power rating: 10.8
3-4 Sun Belt Power rating: -4.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
JMU -7.0
PM Implied
JMU -5.6
Blue Chip model
JMU -11.4
Edge
-4.4JMU
See details
◂ favors JMUfavors TXST ▸Market: JMU -7.0
‹ 15.2 JMU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TXST
no impact
TXST
no impact
TXST
2 JMU2 TXST4 JMU4 TXSTModel: JMU -11.4

Betting information

Spread
JMU -7.0
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
JMU 31.3 – 24.3 TXST
Prediction markets
JMU 71% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

James Madison defeated Texas State 52–20 in a dominant performance. James Madison covered by 25.0; Game went Over by 16.5. The market closed at James Madison -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it James Madison -11.4 - a gap of 4.4 points toward James Madison, of which 2.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for James Madison vs Texas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Bobcat Stadium (TX) were Clear, 60°F with winds of 22 mph. Wind of 22 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 34 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

James Madison travels 1,237 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

James Madison arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

James Madison won by 32 in a dominant performance.

James Madison covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 16.5 points.

How do James Madison and Texas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor James Madison (10.8) over Texas State (-4.4) by 15.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Texas State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Texas State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on James Madison and Texas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

James Madison won and James Madison covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 29, 2025 Game-time

Clear

60°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity70%
Wind22 mph N
Gusts34 mph
Wind map for James Madison at Texas State: aerial view of Bobcat Stadium (TX), wind from the N at 21.9 mph, gusting to 34.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CDT
Venue
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Capacity
27,149
Elevation
600 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

James MadisonAway Texas StateHome
This week1,237 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total3,033 miles5,116 miles
Body clock20:0019:00
Rest11 days11 days

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