Week 10
Michigan Stadium

Purdue16 @FINAL 21Michigan , Week 10, Nov 1, 2025

2-6 Big Ten Power rating: -0.4
6-2 Big Ten Power rating: 18.9

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MICH -21.0
PM Implied
MICH -15.2
Blue Chip model
MICH -21.2
Edge
+0.2MICH
See details
◂ favors PURfavors MICH ▸Market: MICH -21.0
19.3 › MICH
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MICH
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1 PUR1 MICH2 PUR2 MICHModel: MICH -21.2

Betting information

Spread
MICH -21.0
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
PUR 13.8 – 34.8 MICH
Prediction markets
MICH 93% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Michigan defeated Purdue 21–16 in a closely contested finish. Purdue covered by 16.0; Game went Under by 11.5. The market closed at Michigan -21.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Michigan -21.2. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Purdue vs Michigan?

Purdue

Competitive Performance Despite Losing Streak

Purdue, on a seven-game losing streak, played No. 21 Michigan close, losing 21-16. They had a balanced offense with 276 yards and held a time-of-possession edge, showing they can compete with top teams.

Missed Scoring Opportunities

The Boilermakers advanced to Michigan's 33 and 22 on their first two drives but were held scoreless by sacks. A fourth-down stop at their own 49 in the fourth quarter also cost them a chance to tie or take the lead.

Strong Defensive Effort Against Michigan's Run

Purdue's defense limited Michigan to 21 points, forcing a fumble in the end zone for a touchback and keeping the game close. They held the Wolverines to field goals on some drives, but couldn't stop Jordan Marshall's 185 yards and 3 TDs.

Upcoming Challenge vs. Ohio State

Purdue hosts No. 1 Ohio State next Saturday. The team's ability to compete with Michigan suggests they could be a tough out, but they must improve red zone efficiency and avoid slow starts to have a chance.

Michigan

Running back reliance

Jordan Marshall stepped up with 185 yards and 3 TDs, but the offense is heavily dependent on the run game, especially with Justice Haynes injured.

Quarterback struggles

Bryce Underwood completed 13 of 22 passes for 145 yards with an interception and a costly fumble, highlighting ongoing passing game issues.

Defensive resilience

The defense held Purdue scoreless on early drives with key sacks, but allowed 276 total yards and struggled to contain the Boilermakers' balanced attack.

Injury concerns

Multiple key players were injured or out, including Haynes, Barham, McCulley, and Moore, which could impact depth and performance in upcoming games.

Upcoming matchup

Michigan has two weeks to prepare for Northwestern at Wrigley Field, giving time to address offensive inconsistencies and rest injured players.

What were the weather conditions for Purdue vs Michigan?

At kickoff, conditions at Michigan Stadium were Clear, 44°F, wind chill 43°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Purdue travels 208 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Michigan won by 5 in a closely contested finish.

Purdue covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 11.5 points.

How do Purdue and Michigan compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Michigan (18.9) over Purdue (-0.4) by 19.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Michigan brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Michigan won and Purdue covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 1, 2025 Game-time

Clear

44°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity84%
Wind6 mph NW
Gusts13 mph
Wind chill43°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Purdue at Michigan: aerial view of Michigan Stadium, wind from the NW at 6.3 mph, gusting to 13.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EDT
Venue
Michigan Stadium
Capacity
107,601
Elevation
863 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure PurdueAway MichiganHome
This week208 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game99 miles
Season total1,531 miles7,125 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest7 days7 days