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Week 10 • November 02, 2025, 12:00 AM UTC
Arkansas State @ Troy
4-4
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -8.9
23 FINAL 10
6-2
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -5.1
Arkansas State covered by 20.5 | Game went Under by 19.5

By · Last updated

Arkansas State defeated Troy 23–10 in a double-digit victory. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Troy 3.8 points stronger on a neutral field.

Arkansas State @ Troy Preview

General Information

Week: Week 10
Kick Off (at stadium): 07:00 PM CDT
Stadium: Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Capacity: 61,831
Elevation: 548 ft
HFA Rating: 2.4
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Troy -7.5
Total (O/U) 52.5
Expected Score ARST 22.5 - 30.0 TROY
Power Rank Implied Line Troy +3.8
Prediction Markets Troy 75% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

23.1°F

Wind Chill: 14.7°F
Wind: 7.2 mph NNW
Gusts: 13.8 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 63%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Arkansas State (Away)

This Week: 389.1 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 3624.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 8

Troy (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 5655.0 miles
Body Clock Time: 19:00
Rest Days: 8

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Troy -7.5
Total Points 52.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Arkansas State -8.9
Troy -5.1
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 389 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Capacity 61,831
Elevation 548 ft
Weather: Clear
Temperature 23.1°F
Wind Speed 7.2 mph
Your Line Troy +3.8
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Arkansas State vs Troy?

Arkansas State: Key Factors

Troy: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Arkansas State travels 389 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Arkansas State won by 13 in a double-digit victory.

Arkansas State covered the spread, covering the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 19.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)?

At 23.1°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Arkansas State and Troy compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Troy (-5.1) over Arkansas State (-8.9) by 3.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Troy brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas State and Troy?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Arkansas State won and Arkansas State covered the spread.