Arkansas State defeated Troy 23–10 in a double-digit victory. Arkansas State covered by 20.5; Game went Under by 19.5. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Troy 3.8 points stronger on a neutral field.
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At kick-off, conditions at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) were Clear, 49.3°F, Wind Chill 48.9°F with winds of 2.5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
49.3°F
Arkansas State recorded 12 tackles for loss and 9 sacks, with Demarcus Hendricks leading with 2 sacks. This defensive pressure disrupted Troy's offense and forced a fumble recovery, setting up a quick touchdown.
Quarterback Jaylen Raynor completed 21 of 29 passes for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns, including a 4-yard TD to Tyler Fortenberry and a 19-yard TD to Hunter Summers. His accuracy and decision-making were key to building an early 17-0 lead.
The Red Wolves scored 17 points in the first quarter, including a touchdown on their opening drive and another after a fumble recovery. This early dominance forced Troy to play catch-up and set the tone for the game.
With the win, Arkansas State improved to 4-1 in Sun Belt play, tying Troy for second place in the West Division. This positions them well for a potential conference title push, especially with a game against idle Southern Miss looming.
The offense was efficient, with Raynor spreading the ball effectively and the running game complementing the pass. The team's ability to sustain drives and capitalize on defensive turnovers was crucial in securing the 23-10 victory.
Arkansas State travels 389 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Arkansas State won by 13 in a double-digit victory.
Arkansas State covered the spread comfortably.
The total went Under by 19.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Troy (-5.1) over Arkansas State (-8.9) by 3.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Troy brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Arkansas State won and Arkansas State covered the spread.
