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Week 10 •
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Arkansas State23 @FINAL 10Troy

4-4 Sun Belt Power rating: -8.9
6-2 Sun Belt Power rating: -5.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TROY -7.5
PM Implied
TROY -6.9
Blue Chip model
TROY -5.6
Edge
-1.9ARST
See details
◂ favors ARSTfavors TROY ▸Market: TROY -7.5
3.8 › TROY
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TROY
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 ARST1 TROY2 ARST2 TROYModel: TROY -5.6

Betting information

Spread
TROY -7.5
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
ARST 22.5 – 30.0 TROY
Prediction markets
TROY 75% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arkansas State defeated Troy 23–10 in a double-digit victory. Arkansas State covered by 20.5; Game went Under by 19.5. The market closed at Troy -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Troy -5.6, an edge of 1.9 points toward Arkansas State. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Troy 3.8 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Arkansas State vs Troy?

Arkansas State

Dominant Defensive Performance

Arkansas State recorded 12 tackles for loss and 9 sacks, with Demarcus Hendricks leading with 2 sacks. This defensive pressure disrupted Troy's offense and forced a fumble recovery, setting up a quick touchdown.

Efficient Passing Attack

Quarterback Jaylen Raynor completed 21 of 29 passes for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns, including a 4-yard TD to Tyler Fortenberry and a 19-yard TD to Hunter Summers. His accuracy and decision-making were key to building an early 17-0 lead.

Fast Start and Early Lead

The Red Wolves scored 17 points in the first quarter, including a touchdown on their opening drive and another after a fumble recovery. This early dominance forced Troy to play catch-up and set the tone for the game.

Improved Conference Standing

With the win, Arkansas State improved to 4-1 in Sun Belt play, tying Troy for second place in the West Division. This positions them well for a potential conference title push, especially with a game against idle Southern Miss looming.

Balanced Offensive Contributions

The offense was efficient, with Raynor spreading the ball effectively and the running game complementing the pass. The team's ability to sustain drives and capitalize on defensive turnovers was crucial in securing the 23-10 victory.

What were the weather conditions for Arkansas State vs Troy?

At kickoff, conditions at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) were Clear, 49°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arkansas State travels 389 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Arkansas State won by 13 in a double-digit victory.

Arkansas State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 19.5 points.

How do Arkansas State and Troy compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Troy (-5.1) over Arkansas State (-8.9) by 3.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Troy brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas State and Troy?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arkansas State won and Arkansas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 2, 2025 Game-time

Clear

49°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity41%
Wind3 mph SE
Gusts5 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Arkansas State at Troy: aerial view of Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL), wind from the SE at 2.5 mph, gusting to 5.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CDT
Venue
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Capacity
61,831
Elevation
548 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Arkansas StateAway TroyHome
This week389 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total2,617 miles4,439 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest8 days8 days

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