DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
SMU defeated Miami 26–20 in a closely contested finish. SMU covered by 14.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Miami -8.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami -10.6, an edge of 2.1 points toward Miami. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Miami 14.7 points stronger on a neutral field.
Miami's second loss in three weeks, dropping to 6-2 overall and 2-2 in ACC play, significantly hurts their College Football Playoff chances. They are likely to fall out of the top 10 in the polls.
Quarterback Carson Beck threw two interceptions, including a critical one in overtime that set up SMU's winning drive. This marks a recurring problem for Miami in close games.
Coach Mario Cristobal chose not to go for the win at the end of regulation, instead taking a knee with 25 seconds and a timeout left. This conservative decision backfired as Miami lost in overtime.
Miami's defense allowed SMU to tie the game late in regulation after a costly unnecessary roughness penalty on Marquise Lightfoot gave the Mustangs a first down on fourth-and-9. The defense also gave up the game-winning touchdown in overtime.
Miami will host Syracuse next Saturday. They need to bounce back quickly to keep their ACC title hopes alive and improve their bowl positioning.
SMU capitalized on a critical unnecessary roughness penalty on Miami's Marquise Lightfoot on fourth-and-9 with 1:08 left, which gave the Mustangs a first down and set up the tying field goal with 25 seconds remaining in regulation.
Ahmaad Moses intercepted Carson Beck just short of the goal line on Miami's first overtime possession, giving SMU the ball and setting up the game-winning 1-yard run by T.J. Harden.
Jennings played through an apparent lower left leg injury, missing only two plays before returning to lead the offense, including a drive that resulted in a 43-yard field goal to tie the game late in the third quarter.
The win extended SMU's home conference winning streak to 13 games, bouncing back from their first ACC regular-season loss the previous week at Wake Forest.
SMU travels to face Boston College next Saturday, looking to build on this upset victory and stay in contention for the ACC title game.
At kickoff, conditions at Gerald J. Ford Stadium were Sunny, 71°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Sunny
71°F
| Measure | MiamiAway | SMUHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 1,103 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 1,938 miles |
| Season total | 1,894 miles | 4,352 miles |
| Body clock | 12:00 | 11:00 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |
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