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Week 10 •
Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Miami20 @FINAL 26SMU

6-1 ACC Power rating: 24.9
5-3 ACC Power rating: 10.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MIA -8.5
PM Implied
MIA -8.0
Blue Chip model
MIA -10.6
Edge
-2.1MIA
See details
◂ favors MIAfavors SMU ▸Market: MIA -8.5
‹ 14.7 MIA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SMU
no impact
SMU
no impact
no impact
2 MIA2 SMU4 MIA4 SMUModel: MIA -10.6

Betting information

Spread
MIA -8.5
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
MIA 29.5 – 21.0 SMU
Prediction markets
MIA 79% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

SMU defeated Miami 26–20 in a closely contested finish. SMU covered by 14.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at Miami -8.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami -10.6, an edge of 2.1 points toward Miami. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Miami 14.7 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Miami vs SMU?

Miami

Playoff Hopes Damaged

Miami's second loss in three weeks, dropping to 6-2 overall and 2-2 in ACC play, significantly hurts their College Football Playoff chances. They are likely to fall out of the top 10 in the polls.

Turnover Issues

Quarterback Carson Beck threw two interceptions, including a critical one in overtime that set up SMU's winning drive. This marks a recurring problem for Miami in close games.

Missed Opportunity in Regulation

Coach Mario Cristobal chose not to go for the win at the end of regulation, instead taking a knee with 25 seconds and a timeout left. This conservative decision backfired as Miami lost in overtime.

Defensive Struggles in Key Moments

Miami's defense allowed SMU to tie the game late in regulation after a costly unnecessary roughness penalty on Marquise Lightfoot gave the Mustangs a first down on fourth-and-9. The defense also gave up the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

Next Game: Syracuse at Home

Miami will host Syracuse next Saturday. They need to bounce back quickly to keep their ACC title hopes alive and improve their bowl positioning.

SMU

Resilient comeback after key penalty

SMU capitalized on a critical unnecessary roughness penalty on Miami's Marquise Lightfoot on fourth-and-9 with 1:08 left, which gave the Mustangs a first down and set up the tying field goal with 25 seconds remaining in regulation.

Defensive interceptions in overtime

Ahmaad Moses intercepted Carson Beck just short of the goal line on Miami's first overtime possession, giving SMU the ball and setting up the game-winning 1-yard run by T.J. Harden.

Quarterback Kevin Jennings' toughness

Jennings played through an apparent lower left leg injury, missing only two plays before returning to lead the offense, including a drive that resulted in a 43-yard field goal to tie the game late in the third quarter.

Home conference winning streak continues

The win extended SMU's home conference winning streak to 13 games, bouncing back from their first ACC regular-season loss the previous week at Wake Forest.

Next game at Boston College

SMU travels to face Boston College next Saturday, looking to build on this upset victory and stay in contention for the ACC title game.

What were the weather conditions for Miami vs SMU?

At kickoff, conditions at Gerald J. Ford Stadium were Sunny, 71°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Miami travels 1,103 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Miami arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

SMU won by 6 in a closely contested finish.

SMU covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

How do Miami and SMU compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Miami (24.9) over SMU (10.2) by 14.7 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, SMU faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. SMU brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Miami and SMU?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

SMU won and SMU covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 1, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

71°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity60%
Wind4 mph E
Gusts4 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Miami at SMU: aerial view of Gerald J. Ford Stadium, wind from the E at 3.6 mph, gusting to 4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Capacity
32,000
Elevation
594 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

MiamiAway SMUHome
This week1,103 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,938 miles
Season total1,894 miles4,352 miles
Body clock12:0011:00
Rest7 days7 days

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