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Week 10 •
Huntington Bank Stadium

Michigan State20 @FINAL 23Minnesota

3-5 Big Ten Power rating: 4.1
5-3 Big Ten Power rating: 5.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MINN -4.5
PM Implied
MINN -3.4
Blue Chip model
MINN -4.2
Edge
-0.3MSU
See details
◂ favors MSUfavors MINN ▸Market: MINN -4.5
MINN
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MINN
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 MSU1 MINN2 MSU2 MINN3 MSU3 MINNModel: MINN -4.2

Betting information

Spread
MINN -4.5
Total
44.5
Odds implied score
MSU 20.0 – 24.5 MINN
Prediction markets
MINN 64% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Minnesota defeated Michigan State 23–20 in a nail-biter. Michigan State covered by 1.5; Game went Under by 1.5. The market closed at Minnesota -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Minnesota -4.2. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Michigan State vs Minnesota?

Michigan State

Quarterback Change Sparks Offense

Aidan Chiles was benched after 20 consecutive starts, and redshirt freshman Milivojevic provided a spark with 311 yards and a 71-yard touchdown pass, leading to a season-high 467 total yards.

Costly Penalties and Missed Kicks

Michigan State committed 10 penalties for 96 yards, including a crucial pass interference in overtime, and kicker Martin Connington missed field goals from 46 and 23 yards in regulation, contributing to the loss.

Strong Rushing Performance

Elijah Tau-Tolliver rushed for 127 yards on 11 carries, and the team had a 85-yard run that set up a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter, showing offensive balance.

Defensive Struggles in Key Moments

The defense allowed Minnesota to drive for a tying touchdown in the final 29 seconds of regulation, aided by a facemask penalty and pass interference, and gave up the game-winning score in overtime.

Historic Big Ten Losing Streak

The Spartans are now 0-6 in Big Ten play for the first time since 2016, and face a tough matchup next week against Penn State, needing to clean up penalties and special teams to compete.

What were the weather conditions for Michigan State vs Minnesota?

At kickoff, conditions at Huntington Bank Stadium were Partly cloudy, 41°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Michigan State travels 463 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Michigan State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Minnesota won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Michigan State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 1.5 points.

How do Michigan State and Minnesota compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Minnesota (5.5) over Michigan State (4.1) by 1.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Minnesota brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Michigan State and Minnesota?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Minnesota won and Michigan State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 1, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

41°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity78%
Wind3 mph NW
Gusts4 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Michigan State at Minnesota: aerial view of Huntington Bank Stadium, wind from the NW at 2.7 mph, gusting to 4.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
Huntington Bank Stadium
Capacity
50,805
Elevation
840 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Michigan StateAway MinnesotaHome
This week463 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game488 miles
Season total6,119 miles4,886 miles
Body clock15:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days

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