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Week 10 •
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Jacksonville State24 @FINAL 21Middle Tennessee

4-3 CUSA Power rating: -7.3
1-6 CUSA Power rating: -18.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
JXST -4.0
PM Implied
JXST -3.4
Blue Chip model
JXST -9.6
Edge
-5.6JXST
See details
◂ favors JXSTfavors MTSU ▸Market: JXST -4.0
‹ 11.1 JXST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MTSU
JXST
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 JXST2 MTSU4 JXST4 MTSU6 JXST6 MTSUModel: JXST -9.6

Betting information

Spread
JXST -4.0
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
JXST 28.8 – 24.8 MTSU
Prediction markets
JXST 64% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Jacksonville State defeated Middle Tennessee 24–21 in a nail-biter. Middle Tennessee covered by 1.0; Game went Under by 8.5. The market closed at Jacksonville State -4.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Jacksonville State -9.6 - a gap of 5.6 points toward Jacksonville State, of which 4.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee?

At kickoff, conditions at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium were Cloudy, 46°F, wind chill 42°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Jacksonville State travels 144 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Jacksonville State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Middle Tennessee covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 8.5 points.

How do Jacksonville State and Middle Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Jacksonville State (-7.3) over Middle Tennessee (-18.4) by 11.1 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Middle Tennessee faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Middle Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Jacksonville State and Middle Tennessee?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Jacksonville State won and Middle Tennessee covered the spread.

Conditions

as of October 29, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

46°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity84%
Wind4 mph WSW
Gusts6 mph
Wind chill42°F
Wind map for Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee: aerial view of Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, wind from the WSW at 3.8 mph, gusting to 5.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Capacity
27,303
Elevation
656 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Jacksonville StateAway Middle TennesseeHome
This week144 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week1,275 miles
Season total3,343 miles6,326 miles
Body clock18:3018:30
Rest14 days7 days

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