Week 10
Jordan-Hare Stadium

Kentucky10 @FINAL 3Auburn , Week 10, Nov 1, 2025

2-5 SEC Power rating: 8.3
4-4 SEC Power rating: 14.2

How did the line hold up?

Market line
AUB -11.5
PM Implied
AUB -8.4
Blue Chip model
AUB -7.2
Edge
-4.3UK
See details
◂ favors UKfavors AUB ▸Market: AUB -11.5
5.9 › AUB
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2 UK2 AUB4 UK4 AUBModel: AUB -7.2

Betting information

Spread
AUB -11.5
Total
44.5
Odds implied score
UK 16.5 – 28.0 AUB
Prediction markets
AUB 80% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Kentucky defeated Auburn 10–3 in a one-score game. Kentucky covered by 18.5; Game went Under by 31.5. The market closed at Auburn -11.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Auburn -7.2 - a gap of 4.3 points toward Kentucky, of which 3.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Auburn 5.9 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Kentucky vs Auburn?

Kentucky

Defensive Dominance with Seven Sacks

Kentucky's defense recorded seven sacks, consistently pressuring Auburn's quarterbacks and limiting the Tigers to just three points. This performance ended a four-game losing streak and secured the Wildcats' first SEC win of the season.

Offensive Struggles Persist

Despite the win, Kentucky's offense managed only 10 points, with quarterback Cutter Boley throwing for 161 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. The offense failed to generate consistent drives, relying on a 75-yard scoring drive in the third quarter for the game's only touchdown.

Key Play: Touchdown Pass to Kendrick Law

The game-winning score came on a 13-yard touchdown pass from Boley to Kendrick Law, capping a 75-yard drive to open the second half. This play provided the necessary cushion for the defense to secure the victory.

Emotional Win Ends Series Drought

The victory was Kentucky's first against Auburn since 2009, snapping a 19-1 series skid. Coach Mark Stoops expressed pride in the team's resilience despite recent struggles, highlighting the morale boost from this hard-fought win.

Next Game: Hosting Florida

Kentucky will face Florida at home next Saturday. The Wildcats will need to improve offensive consistency to complement their strong defense, as they aim to build on this SEC win and climb the conference standings.

Auburn

Offensive Line Struggles

Auburn's offensive line allowed 7 sacks, severely limiting the passing game and contributing to the team's inability to score more than 3 points.

Quarterback Instability

Both Ashton Daniels and Jackson Arnold struggled under pressure, combining for only 74 passing yards and failing to generate consistent offense.

Defensive Bright Spot

Auburn's defense held Kentucky to 10 points and has kept every opponent to 24 points or fewer this season, but the offense's lack of production undermines these efforts.

Losing Streak and Coaching Pressure

Auburn has lost five of six games, and coach Hugh Freeze's job security is in question after three consecutive home losses and no winning season in three years.

Next Game Against No. 9 Vanderbilt

Auburn faces a tough road test at No. 9 Vanderbilt, needing significant offensive improvement to compete against a ranked opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Kentucky vs Auburn?

At kickoff, conditions at Jordan-Hare Stadium were Clear, 51°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Kentucky travels 378 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Kentucky arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Kentucky won by 7 in a one-score game.

Kentucky covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 31.5 points.

How do Kentucky and Auburn compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Auburn (14.2) over Kentucky (8.3) by 5.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Auburn brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Kentucky won and Kentucky covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 1, 2025 Game-time

Clear

51°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity34%
Wind4 mph ENE
Gusts8 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Kentucky at Auburn: aerial view of Jordan-Hare Stadium, wind from the ENE at 3.6 mph, gusting to 7.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 10
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
Jordan-Hare Stadium
Capacity
88,043
Elevation
686 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure KentuckyAway AuburnHome
This week378 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,102 miles
Season total1,635 miles5,200 miles
Body clock19:3018:30
Rest7 days7 days