Incarnate Word at Texas State carries the highest wind exposure in Week 4, with forecast sustained winds of 16 mph, gusting to 23 mph, at kickoff, at or above the 15 mph threshold where passing efficiency typically declines. 30 of 71 games this week carry at least one weather alert (extreme temperature, wind, gusts, precipitation or humidity). A further 39 of 71 carry an environmental flag (elevation above 5,000 ft or travel over 500 miles), which are venue and travel facts rather than forecast conditions. For weather-focused bettors, the full table below lets you filter by alert type and conference; conditions favoring under totals tend to cluster when sustained wind reaches 15 mph or precipitation probability reaches 60%. These games are still outside the ~10-day forecast window, so every reading here is a preliminary estimate — check back closer to kick-off. Conditions as of .
Blue Chip Analytics pulls hourly forecasts from WeatherAPI.com at each stadium's coordinates for the scheduled kickoff hour. Stadium locations, elevations, and seating capacities come from the Blue Chip Analytics database. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line kilometers from the away team's home venue to the game venue, then converted to miles. Each metric is compared against documented thresholds (sustained wind ≥15 mph, gusts ≥25 mph, temperature ≤32°F or ≥95°F, precipitation chance ≥60%, humidity ≤20% or ≥80%) and flagged in the table. Elevation (>5,000 ft) and travel (>500 miles) are tracked alongside them but are venue and travel facts rather than forecast conditions, so they are counted separately. See the full methodology for model details.
Use the checkboxes above the table to filter games by alert type: for example, checking "Wind Alert" shows only games with sustained winds of 15 mph or more. Use the Conference dropdown to narrow by league. Click any column header to sort. Each row links to the individual game page, which carries the full weather breakdown alongside power ratings, home field advantage, and travel context.
Weather forecasts are sourced from WeatherAPI.com at the stadium's coordinates for the scheduled kickoff hour.
Blue Chip Analytics flags games with sustained winds of 15 mph or more as a wind alert, and gusts of 25 mph or more as a gust alert. Research shows passing efficiency begins to decline meaningfully around 15 mph; kicking games, field goals and punts, are affected at lower thresholds depending on direction. See each game page for stadium maps with directional wind overlay.
Games with a precipitation probability of 60% or more are flagged with a rain alert. Heavy rain tends to depress scoring, favoring under totals, and can reduce the effectiveness of pass-heavy offenses. The effect is most pronounced when rain coincides with sustained wind of 15 mph or more. Moderate rain alone has a smaller and less consistent line impact.
Stadiums above 5,000 feet - such as venues in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming - are flagged for elevation. Thinner air reduces aerodynamic drag, which can marginally increase ball-flight distance on kicks and deep passes. Any effect on visiting-team stamina is smaller and less consistent, so we flag elevation as venue context rather than a scoring edge.
A distance alert flags away teams travelling more than 500 miles to the venue. Long travel correlates with minor but measurable performance reductions, especially for West-to-East trips that involve body-clock disadvantage. Blue Chip Analytics calculates straight-line distance from the away team's home stadium to the game venue using venue coordinates.
Forecasts are updated daily in-season with increasing frequency as game day approaches. Forecasts beyond 72 hours carry wider uncertainty intervals, so the most reliable reads appear in the 48–72-hour window before kickoff. Check back Thursday–Friday each week for the most accurate conditions.
Blue Chip Analytics tracks weather, elevation, and travel distance for every FBS game so you can quickly spot the 30 games with a weather angle in Week 4, plus 39 with an elevation or travel flag.
