Florida International (power rating: -8.0) holds a 10.3-point advantage over Middle Tennessee (-18.3) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Florida International's home field adds 2.2 points to that advantage at Pitbull Stadium. Beyond home field, the model also charges the conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.
The forecast for Pitbull Stadium shows Light rain shower, 80°F with winds of 22 mph. Wind of 22 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 25 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. The weather adjustment is pre-filled in the line value calculator above; adjust it manually if conditions change before kickoff. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Prediction markets on Kalshi price Florida International as 77% favorites to beat Middle Tennessee (23%). That implies a market-derived spread of Florida International -7.8. The Blue Chip model makes it Florida International -12.0, a notable divergence from the Kalshi consensus. Use the line value calculator below to compare prediction market probabilities against your own line.
Light rain shower
80°F
| Measure | Middle TennesseeAway | Florida InternationalHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 781 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 1,286 miles |
| Season total | 2,698 miles | 1,781 miles |
| Body clock | 18:00 | 19:00 |
| Rest | 7 days | 6 days |
Middle Tennessee travels 781 miles to this game, a moderate road trip. Middle Tennessee arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.
.png)
