Boise State32 @FINAL 7Western Michigan , Week 4, Sep 26, 2026

Dylan Riley ran for 206 yards against Memphis and Sire Gaines added 93 as the Broncos piled up 357 rushing yards and 578 total yards. The offensive line, which lost key pieces from 2025, showed it can open lanes against a quality Group of Six opponent. Western Michigan's defense, with a power rating far below Memphis's, will be overmatched at the point of attack. Expect a heavy dose of Riley and Gaines to control the clock and keep Maddux Madsen in manageable situations.

Oregon's Dante Moore threw for 378 yards and three touchdowns, and Memphis's Marcus Stokes torched the Broncos for 384 yards and two long scores (87 and 80 yards) in the first half alone. Jaden Mickey is the only proven returning piece in the defensive backfield, and the linebacker corps around Boen Phelps still has tackling issues. Western Michigan lacks that caliber of playmaker, but the busts and missed tackles that produced those explosive plays are a pattern, not a one-off. If the Broncos sleepwalk, the Broncos can generate a few chunk plays and keep this from being a laugher.

Cam Bates returned a punt 72 yards for a touchdown against Memphis, the kind of explosive return the Broncos lacked all of 2025. Colton Boomer has been reliable from deep, and Oscar Doyle gives them a steady punting game. Against an opponent with inferior team speed, Bates, Quinton Brown and Terrious Favors should have room in the return game. Special teams is often where mismatches like this turn into a rout.

The line and prediction market have Boise State as a solid favorite, and the market's win probability is well above a coin flip. That is a reasonable read given the talent gap, but this team trailed Memphis 17-3 in the first half and needed a second-half defensive shutout to pull away. The Broncos also have a history of playing down to competition, as seen in last season's 38-10 LA Bowl loss to Washington. The market is pricing a clean win; the Broncos' first three games suggest a sloppier, higher-variance performance is possible. The disagreement is modest, but it points toward Western Michigan covering rather than Boise State winning by the projected margin.

Madsen threw for 221 yards and a touchdown and ran for another against Memphis, and he has now thrown three touchdowns against Oregon and managed the offense efficiently in both games. Western Michigan's secondary is a significant step down from Oregon's and Memphis's. With the run game forcing the Broncos to load the box, Madsen should find Cameron Bates and Matt Wagner for easy chunk plays off play-action. This is the game where the new receiving corps can build confidence before Pac-12 play.

The Broncos allowed 431 total yards to FCS Monmouth, including 273 passing yards and a 106-yard day to Tra Neal, and then gave up 21 points and an over on the total at Rice. The secondary has leaned on turnovers (three at Michigan) rather than coverage, and the rebuilt back seven lost its sack leader Nadame Tucker. Boise State arrives with a power rating far above Rice's and a passing game that can punish exactly this profile. If the Broncos cannot generate pressure without extra rushers, the Broncos' defense will be the reason this game gets away.

Western Michigan ran the ball 67% of the time last season and showed the blueprint in Week 1: a 20-play, 13-minute fourth-quarter drive at Michigan, plus Jalen Buckley's three rushing touchdowns against Monmouth and Broc Lowry's legs. At home, with a full week of rest and no travel, the Broncos can shorten the game, keep Boise State's offense off the field, and stay on schedule on early downs. That is the cleanest way for a home underdog to stay inside a one-score line, and it is why this game projects closer than the talent gap suggests.

Lowry was efficient against Monmouth (14 of 20, 212 yards, three touchdowns) but his 2025 profile was 6.9 yards per attempt, and the Rice result came without a recap to confirm progress. If Lowry can hit chunk throws, Boise State cannot load the box against Buckley and Lowry's legs, and the Broncos' offense becomes two-dimensional. If he reverts, the Broncos face third-and-long, which is where this offense has struggled. The market's line assumes the weaker version of Lowry; the home environment and the Monmouth tape give reason to think the stronger version shows up.

The line and the prediction market both have Boise State winning by roughly a touchdown on the road, which assumes the Broncos' pass defense is a fatal flaw and that the Rice escape was the real Western Michigan team. But the Broncos covered as a heavy underdog at Michigan, covered as a heavy favorite against Monmouth, and have a home-field edge at Waldo Stadium plus zero travel against a Boise State team making a long trip. The market's confidence in Boise State is modestly stronger than this team's body of work justifies, and the value sits with the home underdog.

This is the Broncos' second home game of the season and their first against a non-FCS opponent at Waldo Stadium, where the venue home-field advantage has been a real factor. Western Michigan has no travel for this game after a 1,000-mile round trip to Houston, while Boise State is making a long trip east. The Broncos also have a full week of rest and are not in a sandwich spot, with MAC play still ahead. Situational factors that favored Rice last week now flip to favor Western Michigan, and that is not fully reflected in the line.