Week 4 • September 26, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC
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Big 12
Power Rank: 21.4
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Big 12
Power Rank: 1.5

By · Last updated

Utah (power rating: 21.4) carries a 19.9-point edge over Iowa State (1.5) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Iowa State's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7) narrows that gap at Jack Trice Stadium. Utah travels 949 miles for this game — check the travel panel for rest and body clock context. See Line Value below.

General Information

Week: Week 4
Kick Off (at stadium): 11:00 PM CDT
Stadium: Jack Trice Stadium
Capacity: 61,500
Elevation: 915 ft
HFA Rating: 2.7
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Utah -19.9

Line Value Calculator

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Utah
Iowa State
Home field — Jack Trice Stadium
Weather: Mist
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Does weather affect Utah vs Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium?

Game-time forecast at Jack Trice Stadium shows Mist — 74.7°F, Feels Like 79.1°F with winds of 7.6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: July 05, 2026
Mist

Mist

74.7°F

Feels Like: 79.1°F
Wind: 7.6 mph WSW
Gusts: 13.7 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 95%
Rain Chance: 24%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Utah (Away)

This Week: 948.7 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 948.7 miles
Body Clock Time: 22:00
Rest Days: 7

Iowa State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 220.7 miles
Body Clock Time: 23:00
Rest Days: 7

What are the key factors for Utah vs Iowa State?

Utah: Key Factors

Offensive line inexperience vs. Idaho's front

Utah's offense replaces all five starters on the offensive line, making this unit the biggest question mark entering the season. Against an Idaho defense that may not be elite, the Utes must establish the run early to protect their new-look line and give quarterbacks Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin time to operate. Success here will set the tone for the entire season.

Quarterback rotation and chemistry

The Utes plan to use a 'tag-team' approach at quarterback with Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin. This game will be the first test of how effectively they can split reps and maintain rhythm. Idaho's defense may not be complex, but the rotation could disrupt timing with new receivers Braden Pegan and Kyri Shoels, making early-game execution critical.

Run defense improvement under new scheme

Utah was the worst run defense in the Big 12 last season, a major weakness they addressed by adding Jireh Moe and Lucas Samsula via the portal. Against Idaho, the defensive line must show immediate improvement to validate those additions. A strong performance would boost confidence for the rest of the season, while struggles could signal lingering issues.

Home-field advantage and weather factors

Utah enjoys a significant home-field advantage (3.1 HFA) and will play in partly cloudy, 42°F conditions with light wind. The cold weather may favor the Utes' physical run game and veteran defense, while potentially affecting Idaho's passing attack. Utah should leverage this environment to control the game tempo and force Idaho into uncomfortable situations.

New coaching staff's debut and scheme adjustments

Head coach Morgan Scalley and new coordinators Kevin McGiven (offense) and Colton Swan (defense) make their debut. The team has 18 new faces, so early-game execution and communication will be key. Idaho provides a manageable first opponent to test new schemes, but any missteps could create early-season doubt. A clean, disciplined performance is essential for building momentum.

Iowa State: Key Factors

Massive roster turnover creates cohesion questions

Iowa State lost over 50 players to the portal, including 16 starters and 24 who followed the former coach to Penn State. The team added more than 45 transfers, meaning nearly the entire roster is new. This lack of continuity could lead to early-season execution issues, especially on offense where the line is almost entirely rebuilt and the quarterback is a newcomer.

New offensive system relies on downhill run and play-action

Offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, returning from the Detroit Lions, is expected to emphasize downhill rushing and play-action passing. The running back duo of Aiden Flora and MAC Freshman of the Year Cameron Pettaway provides a strong foundation, but the rebuilt offensive line must gel quickly for the scheme to work effectively.

Defense retains key pieces but loses critical safety

The defense returns several contributors like DL Zaimir Hawk and Jace J. Gilbert, LB Carson Willich, and DBs David Coffey and Drew Surges. However, the spring ACL injury to Toledo transfer safety Braden Awls is a significant blow, forcing the staff to develop replacements during the summer. The unit's depth and chemistry will be tested early.

Strong special teams provide a reliable edge

Kicker Kyle Konrardy is one of the nation's best, and the return game features explosive threats in Pettaway (33.0-yard kickoff return average) and Flora (26.1-yard punt return average with a touchdown). In a game where the offense may need time to click, special teams could provide crucial field position and scoring.

Home opener with favorable weather but strong wind

Iowa State hosts Southeast Missouri State at home with a 2.7-point home-field advantage. The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies at 69°F but with 23 mph wind, which could affect passing and kicking. The Cyclones' run-heavy offensive approach may be well-suited to these conditions, while the defense must account for wind on deep throws.

What do the matchup numbers say?

Utah travels 949 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Utah arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

How do Utah and Iowa State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Utah (21.4) over Iowa State (1.5) by 19.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Iowa State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Iowa State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip Analytics rates Utah as the stronger team by 19.9 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.