Week 4
Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Incarnate Word @ Texas State , Week 4, Sep 26, 2026

0-0 Southland Power rating: -17.6
0-0 Pac-12 Power rating: -2.2

Is there value in the Incarnate Word vs Texas State line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TXST -18.3
Edge
No line posted
See details
◂ favors UIWfavors TXST ▸
15.4 › TXST
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1 UIW1 TXST2 UIW2 TXST3 UIW3 TXSTModel: TXST -18.3

Texas State (power rating: -2.2) holds a 15.4-point advantage over Incarnate Word (-17.6) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Texas State's home field adds 2.9 points to that advantage at Bobcat Stadium (TX). Beyond home field, nothing else applies here - rest, travel, elevation and weather all read neutral for this matchup. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Incarnate Word vs Texas State at Bobcat Stadium (TX)?

The latest reading for Bobcat Stadium (TX) shows Partly Cloudy, 74°F with winds of 4 mph. There is a 55% chance of rain, though little accumulation is expected. Blue Chip has not been able to measure a reliable line effect from rain, so treat this as context rather than signal. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Incarnate Word and Texas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas State (-2.2) over Incarnate Word (-17.6) by 15.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Texas State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Texas State -18.3. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of August 22, 2026 Preliminary

Partly Cloudy

74°F

Rain55%
Precip0.04"
Humidity80%
Wind4 mph ESE
Gusts8 mph
Wind map for Incarnate Word at Texas State: aerial view of Bobcat Stadium (TX), wind from the ESE at 4.3 mph, gusting to 7.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
05:00 PM CDT
Venue
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Capacity
27,149
Elevation
600 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Incarnate WordAway Texas StateHome
This week44 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total44 miles59 miles
Body clock17:0017:00
Rest7 days7 days

Incarnate Word travels 44 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.