Colorado13 @FINAL 23Baylor , Week 4, Sep 26, 2026

The rebuilt offensive line, with at least four new starters and eight transfer additions, was flagged as the biggest risk in the preseason and struggled against Georgia Tech (three sacks allowed) before dominating an overmatched Weber State front. Against Northwestern, the line could not protect Julian Lewis, and the entire Go-Go offense stalled in a 7-41 loss. Baylor's defensive front is comparable to Northwestern's, and the Bears have had two weeks to prepare. If the line cannot hold up, Lewis will be under duress and the offense will be one-dimensional, which is the clearest path to a Baylor cover.

The Buffaloes ranked 133rd in run defense last season and allowed 127 yards on the ground to Weber State, including 74 after building a 52-14 lead. They held Georgia Tech to 51 rushing yards, but that was against a Yellow Jackets offense that fumbled three times and never established the run. Northwestern, with a power rating well above Colorado's, controlled the clock and wore down the defense in Week 3. Baylor, with an even higher power rating, is more than capable of doing the same. This is the clearest path for Baylor to cover and win.

The Buffs opened the season with a 1,230-mile trip to Atlanta, returned home for one game, then traveled 929 miles to Northwestern. Now they make a 740-mile trip to Baylor, bringing their season cumulative travel to 2,899 miles. That is three road games in four weeks, and Baylor enjoys a home-field advantage comparable to Georgia Tech's and Northwestern's. Colorado's only road win was a narrow escape against a Yellow Jackets team that outgained them for much of the night. The travel plus a hostile environment makes a fast start unlikely for a team that trailed for most of the second half in Week 1 and was blown out in Week 3.

The prediction market gives Baylor a decisive edge, and the betting line has the Bears as a double-digit home favorite. That reflects Baylor's superior power rating and Colorado's travel burden. However, the Buffs already won a road game as a significant underdog at Georgia Tech, blocking a late field goal to seal it. Julian Lewis led a clutch two-minute drill in that game, and the defense held the Yellow Jackets to 13 points. The market is treating Colorado as a heavy underdog, but this team has shown it can execute in hostile environments. This is a modest disagreement with the market's confidence in Baylor.

Julian Lewis threw four first-half touchdown passes against Weber State, finishing 17 of 23 for 366 yards, and the Go-Go scheme produced 578 total yards with DeAndre Moore Jr. and Joseph Williams both topping 100 receiving yards. Baylor's power rating is higher than Colorado's, but the Bears have not faced a vertical passing game like this. If the offensive line can provide even moderate protection, the Lewis-to-Moore/Williams connection is a genuine mismatch. This is the most likely path for Colorado to keep the game close and potentially pull off an upset.

Joe Klanderman's attacking scheme held Auburn to 17 points despite three Baylor giveaways, then smothered Prairie View A&M to 110 total yards and 2.1 yards per play. Colorado arrives with a power rating well below Baylor's and an ATS mark of 1-2, meaning the Buffaloes have been losing against the number even in a 2-1 start. The front seven transfers (Hosea Wheeler, Jamaal Whyce Jr., Ryan Davis, Garrick Ponder, Kedrick Walker) have generated consistent pressure and negative plays, and this is the most favorable matchup that group has seen since the FCS game. The one caveat is the season-ending leg injury to Devonte Tezino, who had two sacks against Auburn and was playing the best football of his career before being carted off 41 seconds into Week 2. His absence thins the edge rotation, but the depth added in the portal should still overwhelm a Colorado front that has not faced a defense of this caliber.

DJ Lagway was ruled out pregame against Prairie View A&M with an ankle injury suffered in the Auburn loss, and his status for Colorado is not confirmed by anything in the season record. Nate Bennett was efficient in his first start (301 yards, two touchdowns) but threw two interceptions against an FCS defense that had zero picks through two games, and the offense scored only 16 points after halftime. Against Louisiana Tech, Baylor managed 36 points but did not cover a large spread, which suggests the offense is still leaving points on the board regardless of who is under center. If Lagway plays and is healthy, Baylor's downfield explosiveness returns and the offense is far more dangerous. If he is limited or out, the offense becomes more turnover-prone and the margin for error shrinks considerably. The market's confidence in Baylor assumes a functional passing game, and that assumption is not yet supported by the season's evidence.

Against Auburn, Baylor converted only three of five fourth-down attempts, missed a field goal, and settled for other field goals in a one-point loss. Against Prairie View A&M, the Bears scored 34 first-half points but managed only 16 after halftime. Against Louisiana Tech, Baylor won by 17 but failed to cover a spread near three touchdowns. This is a consistent trend: Baylor moves the ball between the twenties but does not finish drives at a rate that justifies a double-digit margin. Colorado, even with a weak power rating, can hang around if Baylor continues to trade touchdowns for field goals and turnovers. The market has Baylor as a comfortable favorite, but the team's own finishing problems are the reason that margin is vulnerable.

Baylor is playing its third straight home game in Waco, with no travel and a full week of rest, while Colorado must travel into a hostile environment. The Bears' home-field advantage has been a positive factor all season, and they have not lost at home. The crowd should provide an emotional lift for a team playing for coach Dave Aranda's job, and the September heat in Waco is a real physical test for a visiting team from Boulder. This situational setup strongly favors Baylor and helps explain the double-digit line, but it does not fully mitigate the quarterback uncertainty and the Tezino loss. The market is right to favor Baylor here, but the situational edge is already reflected in the price.

The prediction market gives Baylor a strong win probability and the line sits at double digits, but Baylor has not covered a spread this large since the Prairie View A&M game, and that was against an FCS opponent. The Bears failed to cover against Louisiana Tech despite winning by 17, and their red-zone inefficiency and turnover issues have been persistent. Colorado's 2-1 record and 1-2 ATS mark suggest a team that is not as bad as its power rating implies, and the Buffaloes have nothing to lose as a double-digit road underdog. The market is treating Baylor's defensive dominance as sufficient to cover a large number, but the offense's inability to finish drives and the quarterback uncertainty make that a riskier proposition than the price suggests. This is a modest disagreement with the market's confidence in Baylor's margin, not in Baylor's likelihood of winning outright.