Long Island University3 @FINAL 20Florida International , Week 4, Sep 26, 2026

In the opener at Kansas, LIU managed just 146 total yards, with 43 yards through the first half. Quarterback Luca Stanzani threw for 111 yards and was the team's leading rusher with 20 yards. The offensive line, which replaced three starters, allowed constant pressure, and the run game never established any rhythm. Florida International, while not a Power Four defense, still holds a significant talent advantage over an FCS program that was routed by North Dakota the week before the Kansas game. Unless LIU has made dramatic schematic or personnel improvements in the three weeks since, points will be extremely hard to come by.

LIU's secondary was a weakness in 2025, ranking 110th in FCS against the pass and allowing 8.2 yards per attempt and 22 passing touchdowns. Kansas exposed that early, hitting on passes of 46 and 47 yards to set up scores. Florida International, even at 1-2, will have receivers capable of separating against an FCS secondary that lacks size and depth. If LIU cannot generate pressure with its front four, the Panthers should find chunk plays through the air and put the game out of reach early.

The prediction market gives LIU essentially no chance to win, which is understandable given the talent gap and the 51-6 loss at Kansas. However, LIU covered the spread in four of their last six games as a double-digit underdog in 2025, including a 17-point loss to a top-25 FCS team where they covered by a touchdown. Florida International is 1-2 and has not blown out inferior opponents consistently. While a straight-up win is highly unlikely, the market's near-total dismissal may undervalue LIU's ability to stay within a large number, especially if FIU eases off late or commits turnovers.

LIU travels 1,109 miles to Miami, a shorter trip than the 1,155-mile journey to Kansas, and has a full seven days of rest. The venue's home-field advantage is modest, and the weather, while outdoor, is unlikely to be as extreme as the 93-degree heat and 102-degree heat index they faced in Lawrence. Still, FIU is playing at home and has already covered the spread in all three of its games this season, showing it performs well relative to expectations. The situational factors are not overwhelming, but they do not help LIU close the gap.

Florida International is 3-0 against the spread this season, covering in each of its first three games despite a 1-2 straight-up record. That indicates the Panthers have been consistently underestimated by the market, or that they perform well in games where the line is close. Against an FCS opponent that was just routed by Kansas, FIU should be able to impose its will. If the market is pricing this game with any hesitation about FIU's ability to cover a large number, the Panthers' ATS trend suggests they are more likely to exceed expectations than fall short.

The Panthers lost all five offensive line starters from last season and opened against South Florida's veteran front, then faced a Florida Atlantic defensive line that held them to 10 points. Long Island's front is not in that class, and this is the first opponent all season that FIU's returnees Zaire Flournoy and Antonio Tripp Jr. should be able to move off the ball. Anthony Carrie has been the secondary option in a pass-first attack through three games, but a soft front should let Willie Simmons and Nick Coleman lean on the run to control tempo and keep JJ Kohl clean. If the line generates movement early, this game could get away from the Sharks quickly.

Kohl passed for over 300 yards and a career-high 31 completions at South Florida, then threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns against Buffalo while adding a receiving score on a trick play. He has spread the ball to Maguire Anderson and Jojo Stone, who each went for 99 yards against the Bulls, and the passing game has been productive in all three games despite the offensive line turnover. Long Island does not have the long, athletic corners that South Florida used to disrupt him, nor the athletes Florida Atlantic used to hold FIU to 10 points. This is the most favorable passing matchup Kohl will see all year, and the market's near-certain win probability reflects that.

The Panthers held South Florida to 19 points, limited Buffalo to 20, and held Florida Atlantic to 16, with Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine sealing the Buffalo win on an interception. Edge rushers Kenton Simmons and Dante Anderson combined for nine sacks last season, Josiah Taylor is the leading returning tackler, and opposing coaches describe the secondary as super long and hard to win against. Long Island's offense is not remotely as talented as any of the first three opponents, and the defense should be able to dictate terms from the opening drive. The only risk is a letdown in focus, but the talent gap is so wide that even a modest effort should produce stops.

FIU is at home with no travel, a full week of rest, and a venue advantage, while Long Island makes a long trip to Miami. The Panthers have covered the spread in all three games this season, including as a double-digit underdog at South Florida and as a favorite against Buffalo, and they are playing their best football under Willie Simmons. The prediction market gives FIU an overwhelming win probability, and unlike the Florida Atlantic game where the market leaned toward the opponent, there is no reasonable case for the underdog here. The only question is whether FIU covers a large number, not whether it wins.

FIU has covered in every game this season, including as a double-digit underdog at South Florida and as a favorite against Buffalo, and its power rating has climbed steadily since the opener. The Panthers have won four of their last five games dating back to last season's bowl run, and Willie Simmons has the program trending upward. Against a Long Island team with a far lower power rating, the gap between the two sides is larger than the market's already lopsided win probability implies. If FIU plays to its recent form, this game should not be competitive into the second half.