Week 4
Valley Children's Stadium

Rice @ Fresno State , Week 4, Sep 27, 2026

0-0 American Power rating: -15.3
0-0 Pac-12 Power rating: -3.9

Is there value in the Rice vs Fresno State line?

Market line
None posted
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
FRES -15.1
Edge
No line posted
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1 RICE1 FRES2 RICE2 FRES3 RICE3 FRESModel: FRES -15.1

Fresno State (power rating: -3.9) holds a 11.4-point advantage over Rice (-15.3) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Fresno State's home field adds 2.5 points to that advantage at Valley Children's Stadium. Beyond home field, the model charges Rice's westward trip, with a slighter reading for the warm conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.

Does weather affect Rice vs Fresno State at Valley Children's Stadium?

The latest reading for Valley Children's Stadium shows Clear, 80°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

How do Rice and Fresno State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Fresno State (-3.9) over Rice (-15.3) by 11.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Fresno State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip makes this Fresno State -15.1. No market line is posted yet for comparison.

Conditions

as of September 5, 2026 Preliminary

Clear

80°F

Rain1%
Precip0.00"
Humidity22%
Wind10 mph WNW
Gusts16 mph
Wind map for Rice at Fresno State: aerial view of Valley Children's Stadium, wind from the WNW at 9.8 mph, gusting to 16.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM PDT
Venue
Valley Children's Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
351 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure RiceAway Fresno StateHome
This week1,487 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game243 miles
Season total3,432 miles664 miles
Body clock21:0019:00
Rest8 days7 days

Rice travels 1,487 miles to this game, a significant road trip. That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.