Wake Forest30 @FINAL 27Louisville , Week 4, Sep 26, 2026

The Deacons have allowed 52 points and over 600 yards combined to Akron and Purdue, with both opponents scoring late or in bunches once the game was decided. Akron managed 305 total yards and two late touchdowns after the outcome was settled, and Purdue rallied from 23-13 down in the fourth quarter to force overtime behind 329 passing yards from Ryan Browne and 114 rushing yards and three scores from Fame Ijeboi. Miami then hung 33 points on Wake Forest at home. Louisville's offense is more explosive than any of those three, and if the Deacons again fade in the second half, the game could get away quickly.

Lopez threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns in his debut against Akron, then ran for 59 yards and two scores, including the game-winning conversion in double overtime at Purdue. He has been at his best in the biggest moments, and his reunion with offensive coordinator Rob Ezell has unlocked the explosiveness he showed at South Alabama in 2024. Against a Louisville defense that has been good but not invincible, Lopez's ability to extend plays and hit big throws to Carlos Hernandez and Kam Shanks keeps Wake Forest live longer than a typical double-digit underdog.

The line and prediction market have Louisville as a heavy favorite, reflecting the massive power-rating gap between the teams. But Wake Forest went into West Lafayette as a slight favorite and won a double-overtime thriller against a Big Ten opponent, showing it can match up physically and make clutch plays. Louisville is a much stronger opponent than Purdue, but the market's confidence in a blowout may be overstating how quickly Wake Forest will fold, especially with an extra day of rest and a short trip.

The preseason concern about replacing multiple starters up front has not been a disaster: Lopez was sacked only once in the first two games and the Deacons ran for 105 yards on just seven carries against Akron. But Louisville's defensive line is among the best in the country, with future NFL draft picks at every position. If the line cannot hold up, Lopez will be forced into quick decisions and the running game will stall, making it very difficult for Wake Forest to sustain drives.

Wake Forest played a double-overtime game at Purdue on Saturday and now has a six-day turnaround to host Miami on Friday night. The emotional and physical toll of that win, combined with the travel back from West Lafayette, could leave the Deacons sluggish early. Miami, meanwhile, has had a normal week and will be looking to make a statement on the road. If Wake Forest starts slowly, Miami's talent could turn the game into a rout before the Deacons find their footing.

Lincoln Kienholz has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his first two starts, the first Louisville quarterback ever to do that, and he added 69 rushing yards against a top-10 Ole Miss defense and two rushing scores against Villanova. The Cardinals put 38 points on Ole Miss, 59 on Villanova with 635 total yards, and 41 on SMU. Louisville is 3-0 against the spread and 3-0 on overs, and the market has been behind this offense every week. Wake Forest's defense is the weakest unit Louisville will have faced, and the market's win probability still leaves the Cardinals short of a near-certain home win. The market is more skeptical of Louisville than this offense's three-game track record justifies.

Louisville gave up 351 passing yards and three touchdowns to Ole Miss, including two 62-yard scores, then allowed a 65-yard touchdown pass to Villanova. New safety Koen Entringer and corner Tayon Holloway have been beaten over the top, and the pass rush does not always arrive. SMU, with a higher power rating than Louisville, had the quarterback and receivers to test that weakness and scored 31 points. Wake Forest's offense is far less formidable than any of those three, so this is the week the secondary's issues are least likely to cost the Cardinals. The market's confidence in a comfortable Louisville win is reasonable on this side of the ball.

Louisville committed seven penalties against Villanova, five of them 15-yarders, and had similar issues against Ole Miss. Those free yards and extended drives are exactly how a heavy underdog stays within a backdoor cover. Wake Forest is disciplined enough to capitalize on extra possessions, and the market has this as a multi-score game. If Louisville cleans up the flags, the spread is safe; if not, the backdoor stays open. This cuts against the market's comfortable margin.

Brown, who led the nation at 8.8 yards per carry last season, was held to 36 yards on 16 carries by Ole Miss and has not had a breakout game since. The rebuilt offensive line, starting transfers Eryx Daugherty and Evan Wibberley and breaking in a new position coach, has yet to consistently open holes. Wake Forest's defensive front is nowhere near Ole Miss's level, so this is Brown's best chance to reset before ACC play. If he gets going, Louisville controls the clock and the game script, which supports the market's view of a comfortable home win.

Louisville opened as a small underdog against Ole Miss and covered, was a massive favorite against Villanova and covered, and was a slight home favorite against SMU and covered. The market has consistently underrated this team's offense and its ability to cover, and the win probability for this game, while high, still leaves room for the Cardinals to outperform. Wake Forest is 1-2 against the spread and has a far lower power rating. The market is more confident in Wake Forest's ability to stay close than Louisville's three-game body of work justifies.