Week 4 • September 25, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC
0-0
American
Power Rank: 1.6
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American
Power Rank: -15.0

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Navy (power rating: 1.6) carries a 16.6-point edge over UAB (-15.0) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. UAB's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3) narrows that gap at Protective Stadium. Navy travels 687 miles for this game — check the travel panel for rest and body clock context. See Line Value below.

General Information

Week: Week 4
Kick Off (at stadium): 11:00 PM CDT
Stadium: Protective Stadium
Capacity: 47,100
Elevation: 623 ft
HFA Rating: 2.3
Playing Surface: Artificial Turf

Betting Information

Spread None
Total (O/U) -
Odds Implied Score -
Power Rank Implied Line Navy -16.6

Line Value Calculator

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Navy
UAB
Home field — Protective Stadium
Weather: Clear
Travel impact

Positive adjustment = favours home team

Does weather affect Navy vs UAB at Protective Stadium?

Game-time forecast at Protective Stadium shows Clear — 71.9°F, Feels Like 63.0°F with winds of 2.9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: July 05, 2026
Clear

Clear

71.9°F

Feels Like: 63.0°F
Wind: 2.9 mph WSW
Gusts: 6.1 mph
Precipitation: 0.02"
Humidity: 93%
Rain Chance: 16%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Navy (Away)

This Week: 686.7 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 2473.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 00:00
Rest Days: 13

UAB (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 765.9 miles
Season Total: 1685.8 miles
Body Clock Time: 23:00
Rest Days: 6

What are the key factors for Navy vs UAB?

Navy: Key Factors

New quarterback and offensive transition

Braxton Woodson takes over at quarterback after the departure of Blake Horvath, who accounted for a large share of last year's offense. Woodson has sprinter's speed and experience at multiple positions, but his passing consistency is unproven. The offense is in its third year under coordinator Drew Cronic, who expects more from the passing game, but the unit is relying on several unproven players, including running back Vic Listorti (hamstring history) and slotback Charles Robinson (emerged in spring).

Defensive strengths at linebacker and safety

Navy returns two highly productive inside linebackers, MarcAnthony Parker and Coleman Cauley, who combined for 176 tackles last season. Safety Giuseppe Sessi, the defensive signal-caller, was second on the team with 81 tackles. The secondary improved late last season after Phillip Hamilton moved to safety, and the corners (Nick Bell, Irabonoise Oniha) bring experience. However, the pass rush is a concern after losing first-team All-America nose guard Landon Robinson.

Home-field advantage and favorable weather

Navy plays at home with a venue home-field advantage of 2.4 points. The forecast is clear with 57°F and 11 mph wind, which should not significantly impact the game. The Midshipmen have no travel and are well-rested for the season opener.

Uncertainty at placekicker

Justin Welch enters as the top placekicker, but the position battle continued through training camp. Special teams could be a factor in a close game, and any missed opportunities could be costly.

Opponent scouting and preparation challenges

Towson is an FCS opponent with no prior season data available. Navy's unique option-style offense is difficult to prepare for, especially for a team that may not see it regularly. The Midshipmen's defensive multiplicity and retention of players due to the academy's structure give them an edge in scheme familiarity.

UAB: Key Factors

New coaching staff and system transition

UAB enters the season under first-year head coach Alex Mortensen, who has completely overhauled the culture after Trent Dilfer's tenure. The team is still adapting to Mortensen's offensive system and Todd Grantham's defensive scheme, which could lead to early-season growing pains, especially on the road against a Power Five opponent.

Quarterback uncertainty and offensive firepower

Ryder Burton is the clear starter after limited experience (two career starts), but he has a strong supporting cast with a deep backfield featuring Rod Robinson II, Ja'Vin Simpkins, and Bam McReynolds. The offensive line returns key pieces, but wide receiver depth is a concern if Kaleb Brown is not fully recovered from an ankle injury. The offense's ability to sustain drives and avoid turnovers will be critical.

Defensive strength up the middle

Todd Grantham's defense is anchored by a formidable interior with tackles Cam Cunningham, Chris Spencer, and Nigel Tate, plus experienced inside linebackers Muaaz Byard and Ike Esonwune. Safeties Jeremiah Jordan and Jotavian Pierce provide stability. This unit should be effective against the run, but the secondary, with corners Delvon Gulley and Darrell Sweeting, faces a tough test against Illinois' passing attack.

Adverse weather conditions

The game is forecasted to be cloudy with 65°F and 22 mph winds. Strong winds can disrupt passing games and kicking, potentially favoring a run-heavy approach. UAB's deep backfield could be an advantage in such conditions, while Burton's inexperience in windy environments may lead to inaccurate throws.

Road environment and travel factors

UAB travels 460 miles to Champaign for a non-conference road game against Illinois, which has a significant home-field advantage (2.6). The Blazers have no prior game experience this season, so this will be their first test in a hostile environment. The team's ability to handle the crowd noise and travel fatigue will be crucial.

What do the matchup numbers say?

Navy travels 687 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Navy arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

How do Navy and UAB compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Navy (1.6) over UAB (-15.0) by 16.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, UAB faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. UAB brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Blue Chip Analytics rates Navy as the stronger team by 16.6 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.