Ball State (power rating: -18.9) carries a 3.4-point edge over Kent State (-22.3) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Kent State's home field (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0) narrows that gap at Dix Stadium. See Line Value below.
Adjust any factor to update your projected line
Positive adjustment = favours home team
Game-time forecast at Dix Stadium shows Clear — 69.8°F, Feels Like 59.9°F with winds of 4.7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.
69.8°F
Ball State enters with two transfer quarterbacks—Keldric Luster (dual-threat) and Tyler Mizzell (pass-first)—both expected to play. Luster's mobility could be key against Ohio State's defensive front, but the lack of a settled starter may limit offensive rhythm early.
Ball State's offensive line, anchored by All-MAC candidate Tristan Cook at right tackle, is the team's strongest unit. However, Ohio State's defensive line is elite, and the Cardinals' unproven quarterback and receiving corps will need time to operate—making pass protection critical.
The secondary features experienced cornerback Willizhuan Yates and safety Deondre Shepherd, plus Purdue transfer Sterling Smith. However, the defensive line is thin and relies on rotational players like Ameir Glenn and Ben Marsh, which could be exploited by Ohio State's powerful run game and quick passing attack.
Ball State travels only 128 miles to Ohio Stadium, a short trip, but faces a massive home-field advantage (HFA 3.0) in a 100,000+ seat venue. The forecast is partly cloudy with 63°F and 12 mph wind, which may affect passing but is manageable.
Kicker Carson Holmer struggled last season (3-for-7 FG, long 23 yards) and may be a liability in a game where scoring opportunities are limited. Punter Cole Stumbaugh is reliable, but field position battles will be crucial against a superior opponent.
DeShields threw only 3 interceptions in 2025 and is praised for not turning the ball over. Against a South Carolina defense that will likely be aggressive, his ability to avoid mistakes will be critical for Kent State to stay competitive.
Kent State enters with no clear No. 1 tailback after a four-man competition in spring. South Carolina's defensive line could exploit this lack of established run game, forcing the offense to rely heavily on DeShields and the passing attack.
Both starting cornerbacks are new, and the defense ranked 125th in total defense last season. Traveling to face South Carolina's passing game in a hostile environment (2.8 HFA) could expose this inexperienced secondary.
Da'Realyst Clark (first-team All-MAC kick returner) and Wayne Harris (MAC-best 13.2-yard punt return average) are proven playmakers. In a game where Kent State may be overmatched, a big return or solid punting from Jake Stoeckel could keep the game close.
After a remarkable turnaround from 1-23 to 5-7, the team plays hard and believes in the coaching staff. This intangible factor could help Kent State avoid a blowout and cover a potential large spread, even as a heavy underdog on the road.
Ball State travels 225 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Ball State (-18.9) over Kent State (-22.3) by 3.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Kent State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Kent State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Blue Chip Analytics rates Ball State as the stronger team by 3.4 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.
