Robert Morris28 @FINAL 31Buffalo , Week 4, Sep 26, 2026

Akron ran for 81 yards on just 10 carries from Jordan Gant and controlled the game on the ground, scoring on three straight possessions to break open a 21-10 halftime lead. The Colonials' front seven was pushed off the ball and missed tackles in the second level, turning short gains into explosives. Buffalo, even at 1-2, will lean on a similar power approach and has the athletes to exploit the same gaps. If Robert Morris cannot shore up its run fits, Buffalo will control the clock and keep the ball away from any chance of an upset.

Carson Haggard completed 19 of 28 passes for 179 yards and Galen Combs had nine catches for 119 yards, including a 43-yard touchdown that tied the game at 7-all. That was a step up from the opener, when the quarterback completed under half his attempts with two interceptions. However, Buffalo's defense, despite an 0-3 ATS mark, has faced tougher competition and will bring more athleticism than Akron did. The Colonials will need to rely on quick passes and screens to move the chains, a style that limits big-play potential and puts pressure on the offensive line to protect Haggard.

The prediction market gives Robert Morris only a tiny chance to win, and nothing in the season dossier suggests that is an overreaction. Robert Morris's power rating sits far below Buffalo's, and the Colonials lost their only game against an FBS opponent by 35 points. Buffalo is 1-2 but has played a tougher schedule and will be at home, where the venue provides a meaningful edge. The market's confidence in Buffalo is well-founded, and there is no evidence to suggest Robert Morris can keep this game close without a massive turnover differential.

In the opener, Robert Morris forced two turnovers and returned a kickoff into opponent territory, but failed to convert those opportunities into points. Against Akron, the Colonials managed just 10 points despite forcing a fumble on the Zips' first possession. Buffalo has turned the ball over at times during its 1-2 start, and if Robert Morris can capitalize on short fields or a special teams touchdown, it could keep the final margin respectable. However, the offense's inability to sustain drives makes it unlikely that such breaks translate into a win.

Robert Morris has had two weeks to prepare for Buffalo, and the trip is a manageable 186 miles, much shorter than many FBS road games. That rest and familiarity could help the Colonials correct some of the issues that plagued them against Akron, particularly on defense. However, Buffalo is also coming off a bye and will be eager to get its first win of the season at home. The extra preparation time is a minor positive for Robert Morris, but it does not close the significant gap in roster talent and depth.

The 2025 Bulls ranked No. 23 nationally in pass defense (186.4 ypg) and returned experienced corners Kobi Blackwell and Keontez Bradley plus nickel SaVeon Brown, but that reputation has not survived contact with 2026. UAlbany's Kai Colon threw a 14-yard touchdown to Tavahri Groves in the opener, and FIU's JJ Kohl torched the Bulls for 367 yards and three scores, including a 68-yard catch-and-run by Jojo Stone and a trick-play touchdown reception by Kohl himself. Penn State then hung 55 points on this group. The pass rush has been nearly nonexistent, with just one sack across the first two games, which leaves the secondary exposed. Robert Morris, with a power rating far below every opponent Buffalo has faced, does not have the athletes to exploit the same soft spots. This is the week the secondary can rebuild its confidence and get back to the form that made it a top-25 unit a year ago.

Morrow caught all three of Elijah Holmes's touchdown passes in the opener, going up high over his defender for a 4-yard score and finishing with seven receptions. He then exploded at FIU for 173 yards and two touchdowns on a day when Jason Wright threw for 185 yards total, meaning Morrow accounted for nearly all of the Bulls' passing production. That is a true alpha receiver profile against a Conference USA opponent on the road. Robert Morris, a lower-level program with a power rating in the mid-minus-30s, will not have a corner capable of running with a 6-foot-4 red-zone threat who has already proven he can win contested catches. If Wright gets any time at all, Morrow should have a monster afternoon, and the Bulls' red-zone offense should function far more smoothly than it did against FIU or Penn State.

Buffalo returned only one starter on the offensive line in Alex Heininger, and the unit has struggled badly. UAlbany's Dana Johnson Jr. recorded a strip-sack of Holmes that was recovered at the Buffalo 27, and the run game was nonexistent at FIU, where the Bulls fell behind early and became one-dimensional. Penn State then dominated the line of scrimmage entirely, holding Buffalo to 13 points. The result is a run game that has not gotten Terrance Shelton Jr. or Messiah Burch going with any consistency, and a quarterback in Wright who has been forced into obvious passing situations. Robert Morris does not have the depth or talent up front to replicate what Penn State and even FIU did. This is the best opportunity the Bulls will have all season to establish the run, protect the quarterback, and let Tony Tokarz's offense operate on schedule.

The Bulls opened at home against UAlbany with no travel, then logged over a thousand miles to FIU and another trip to Penn State, accumulating 1,350 travel miles before this game. Now they return to Buffalo with zero travel, a full week of rest, and a home-field advantage that was worth a win in Week 1. Pete Lembo's teams are known for sound game management and special teams discipline, and that edge tends to show up most clearly against overmatched opponents. Robert Morris has to make the trip to a MAC venue and face a team that is faster and deeper at nearly every position. The situational factors here all point one direction, and they compound the talent gap rather than offset it.

The prediction market gives Buffalo an overwhelming share of the win probability, and unlike the opener against UAlbany, where the Bulls won by only four and failed to cover a large spread, this spot does not carry the same warning signs. The UAlbany game was sloppy because it was the first start for a redshirt freshman quarterback and a rebuilt offensive line, and Buffalo still found a way to win on a late goal-line stand by Stevie Bracey. Three games in, Wright has a 185-yard, two-touchdown road performance on his resume, Morrow has proven he can take over a game, and the defense has seen far better offenses than this one. Robert Morris is the weakest opponent on the schedule by a wide margin. The market's heavy lean toward Buffalo is not overstating the gap; if anything, the Bulls' 0-3 ATS record might make some observers hesitant, but that record was built against FCS UAlbany, a solid FIU team, and Penn State. This is a different caliber of matchup entirely.