Howard7 @FINAL 58Rutgers , Week 4, Sep 25, 2026

Howard managed just 57 total yards and 13 rushing yards at Indiana, with only two first downs after the opening scripted series. Rutgers is winless but has been competitive enough to cover in one of three games, and its defense is far more forgiving than Indiana's. Still, Howard has not demonstrated any ability to sustain drives against FBS fronts, and the long rest (13 days) may help install new looks but cannot close the talent gap. The market's near-total confidence in Rutgers is justified by Howard's complete lack of offensive production.

Indiana rushed for 301 yards on Howard, averaging well over five yards per carry, and the Bison could not get off blocks. Rutgers, despite its 0-3 record, has a power rating far above Howard's and will likely lean on its running game to control the clock. Howard's defensive line was pushed around all afternoon in Bloomington, and there is no evidence that unit has improved enough to stop a Big Ten rushing attack. This is a mismatch that favors Rutgers heavily.

Howard travels only 175 miles to Rutgers, a much shorter trip than the 511-mile trek to Bloomington, and has 13 days of rest. That is a genuine positive compared to the Indiana game. However, Howard has not won a road game against an FBS opponent since 2017 (at UNLV), and Rutgers will have home-field advantage. The shorter travel and extra rest may keep Howard fresher, but it does not change the fundamental gap in talent and depth.

The prediction market gives Howard only a token chance to win, reflecting the Bison's 0-55 loss at Indiana and their inability to move the ball. Rutgers is 0-3 but has a power rating that dwarfs Howard's, and its losses have come against stronger competition. The market may be slightly overconfident in Rutgers given the Scarlet Knights' own struggles, but Howard has shown no evidence it can exploit those weaknesses. The line, if it appears, will likely be heavily in Rutgers' favor, and that is justified.

The Scarlet Knights started 10 new players on defense and have allowed 37 points to a UMass team that had lost 16 straight, 28 to Boston College, and 42 to USC. Last season's unit gave up 432.8 yards per game, and new coordinator Travis Johansen has not fixed the issues in the secondary or front seven. Howard's power rating is far below every opponent Rutgers has faced, so this is the first game where the defense can generate stops and get off the field. If Rutgers cannot look competent here, the problems are structural rather than opponent-driven.

Dylan Lonergan threw four interceptions and lost a fumble in the opener before being lifted with an injury. AJ Surace made his first start at Boston College and threw four picks of his own, though he also had three touchdowns. Neither has secured the job, and the offense has been its own worst enemy. Howard's defense is far less talented than UMass, Boston College, or USC, so this is the game where Rutgers can build confidence and clean up the mistakes. If the turnovers persist against an overmatched opponent, it is a red flag for the rest of the Big Ten schedule.

Duff has been spectacular: nine catches for 196 yards and three touchdowns against UMass, then two more scores at Boston College, including a 60-yarder. He is a potential first-round pick and the clear focal point of the offense. Against USC, the Trojans could double-team him and force Rutgers to beat them elsewhere. Howard does not have the athletes to do that, so Duff should have a monster day and open up opportunities for Antwan Raymond and the running game, which has been ineffective so far.

Rutgers has six days between the USC game and this one, while Howard travels to SHI Stadium. The Scarlet Knights have historically been stronger at home under Greg Schiano, and the home crowd should provide an emotional lift after an 0-3 start. The short week is a minor concern for recovery, but the gap in talent and depth is so large that it should not matter. This is the most favorable situational spot Rutgers has had all season.

The prediction market gives Rutgers a near-certain win probability, which is reasonable given Howard's low power rating. However, Rutgers was in a similar spot against UMass and lost outright as a massive favorite. The defense has shown no ability to get stops, and the offense has been turnover-prone. While the win probability is justified, the margin of victory is far less certain. The market may be overconfident in Rutgers covering a large number, given their 1-2 against the spread record and the possibility of a slow start or backdoor scores by Howard.