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Ohio State Buckeyes is 6-1 on the season, 5-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +26.9. Ohio State Buckeyes is covering the spread at 71% since the start of last season (15-6), well above the FBS average. The Ohio State Buckeyes head to USC next in Week 9.
In Week 7 of 2026 the Ohio State Buckeyes Power Rating of +26.9 is 26.9 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Ohio State Buckeyes have logged 3,447 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,854 miles, ranking 44th heaviest in the FBS.
Julian Sayin QB, Jeremiah Smith WR, Brandon Inniss WR, Chris Henry Jr. WR, Bo Jackson RB, Isaiah West RB, Carson Hinzman C, Austin Siereveld OL
Kenyatta Jackson Jr. DE, James Smith DL, Jermaine Matthews Jr. CB, Terry Moore S
Connor Hawkins K, Joe McGuire P
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Week 3 | 3-0 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Week 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Week 6 | 5-0 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 6-0 | 5-1 | 2-4 |
| Week 8 | 7-0 | 6-1 | 2-5 |
| Week 10 | 8-0 | 7-1 | 3-5 |
| Week 11 | 9-0 | 7-2 | 3-6 |
| Week 12 | 10-0 | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 11-0 | 9-2 | 4-7 |
| Week 14 | 12-0 | 10-2 | 4-8 |
| Week 15 | 12-1 | 10-3 | 4-9 |
| Postseason | 12-2 | 10-4 | 4-10 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +32.2 in the preseason and finished +26.9 after week 8, a move of -5.3 points. High +32.6 (week 1), low +26.8 (week 3).
PreW8
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.9 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Illinois | 2 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Iowa | 3 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Maryland | 7 | 7-0 | 4-2-1 |
| Indiana | 10 | 9-1 | 5-5 |
| USC | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Oregon | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Northwestern | 6 | 6-0 | 2-4 |
| Nebraska | 7 | 7-0 | 4-3 |
| Michigan | 9 | 5-4 | 3-6 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Ball State, Kent State.
Week 08,854 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Ball State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Texas | 1,067 mi | 2,133 mi |
| Week 3 | Kent State | Home | 2,133 mi |
| Week 4 | Illinois | Home | 2,133 mi |
| Week 5 | Iowa | 461 mi | 3,056 mi |
| Week 6 | Maryland | Home | 3,056 mi |
| Week 7 | Indiana | 195 mi | 3,447 mi |
| Week 8 | - | Bye | |
| Week 9 | USC | 1,980 mi | 7,407 mi |
| Week 10 | Oregon | Home | 7,407 mi |
| Week 11 | Northwestern | Home | 7,407 mi |
| Week 12 | Nebraska | 723 mi | 8,854 mi |
| Week 13 | Michigan | Home | 8,854 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Ohio State's offense has been explosive, averaging over 40 points per game. Quarterback Julian Sayin has been efficient, completing 69.8% of his passes for 1,773 yards with 16 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. His favorite target, Jeremiah Smith, has been unstoppable, recording 56 catches for 1,016 yards and 12 touchdowns, including a record-tying four-touchdown performance against Illinois. The running game, featuring Bo Jackson and Ja'Kobi Jackson, provides balance, and the offensive line has been solid despite recent injuries. This unit will need to continue producing at a high level for the Buckeyes to contend.
The rebuilt defense under coordinator Matt Patricia has had its moments, holding Ball State to 165 total yards and Iowa to 238 yards. However, they struggled against Texas, allowing 24 points and a 20-point fourth-quarter comeback, and gave up 199 rushing yards to Illinois. The linebacker corps is still learning, and the secondary has been tested. The return of defensive linemen Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and James Smith has bolstered the run defense, but consistency remains a concern. This unit must improve to handle the upcoming gauntlet of Big Ten offenses.
Kicker Connor Hawkins has been mostly reliable but missed a crucial 45-yard field goal against Texas that could have sealed the game. Punter Joe McGuire has been average, and the return game has been inconsistent. Additionally, the team has committed costly penalties, including eight for 75 yards against Maryland, which kept the Terrapins in the game. Cleaning up these mistakes will be critical in close matchups down the stretch.
Ohio State is 5-1 and 3-0 in the Big Ten, but the schedule ramps up significantly. The Buckeyes face a tough road test at Indiana, followed by a trip to USC and a home game against Oregon. With one loss already, their margin for error is thin. The team must avoid letdowns and maintain focus to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. The experience of quarterback Julian Sayin and the playmaking ability of Jeremiah Smith will be key to navigating this challenging stretch.
Head coach Ryan Day has faced criticism for his team's second-half execution and conservative play-calling with leads. The loss to Texas, where Ohio State blew a 20-point fourth-quarter lead, highlighted these issues. Day's decision to pull starters early in blowouts has also impacted margins. As the competition intensifies, Day and his staff must make better in-game adjustments and ensure the team plays a full 60 minutes. Their ability to manage close games will determine the season's outcome.
Ohio State Buckeyes is 5-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 71% of games.
Ohio State Buckeyes holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +26.9, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Ohio State Buckeyes's home field advantage rating is 3.0 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Ohio State Buckeyes's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 9.5 wins, priced at -180 over and +140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Ohio State Buckeyes travels 8,854 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 44th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Ohio State Buckeyes: 6-1 overall, 5-2 ATS, power rating +26.9 (2026 records).