Ohio State Buckeyes

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Ohio State Buckeyes is 6-1 on the season, 5-2 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +26.9. Ohio State Buckeyes is covering the spread at 71% since the start of last season (15-6), well above the FBS average. The Ohio State Buckeyes head to USC next in Week 9.

Conference: Big Ten Conference
Stadium: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Power Rating (most current): +26.9
HFA Rating:3.0 pts
2026 Win Total:9.5
2026 Record: 6-1
2026 ATS: 5-2
2026 O/U: 4-3

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 7 of 2026 the Ohio State Buckeyes Power Rating of +26.9 is 26.9 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Ohio State Buckeyes have logged 3,447 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 8,854 miles, ranking 44th heaviest in the FBS.

Ohio State Buckeyes Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachRyan Day
Tenure7+ seasons
Record82-12
Offensive coordinatorsArthur Smith, Keenan Bailey
Defensive coordinatorMatt Patricia

Offense

Julian Sayin QB, Jeremiah Smith WR, Brandon Inniss WR, Chris Henry Jr. WR, Bo Jackson RB, Isaiah West RB, Carson Hinzman C, Austin Siereveld OL

Defense

Kenyatta Jackson Jr. DE, James Smith DL, Jermaine Matthews Jr. CB, Terry Moore S

Special teams

Connor Hawkins K, Joe McGuire P

2025 Season in Review

Record12-2 ATS10-4 O/U4-10
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 11-01-00-1
Week 22-02-01-1
Week 33-02-11-2
Week 54-03-11-3
Week 65-04-12-3
Week 76-05-12-4
Week 87-06-12-5
Week 108-07-13-5
Week 119-07-23-6
Week 1210-08-24-6
Week 1311-09-24-7
Week 1412-010-24-8
Week 1512-110-34-9
Postseason12-210-44-10

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2026 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +32.2 in the preseason and finished +26.9 after week 8, a move of -5.3 points. High +32.6 (week 1), low +26.8 (week 3).

Line chart of the 2026 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 10 points, from +32.2 to +26.9.

PreW8

Ohio State Buckeyes SP+ Profile

Offence+40.62 of 138higher is better
Defence+8.81 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.159 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.1 pts
HFA measured+3.9 pts
HFA applied+3.0 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured and applied home field advantage agree to within 0.9 points here, so smoothing changes little for this venue.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Texas22-02-0
Illinois22-01-1
Iowa32-12-1
Maryland77-04-2-1
Indiana109-15-5
USC11-01-0
Oregon31-21-2
Northwestern66-02-4
Nebraska77-04-3
Michigan95-43-6

No meeting on record since 2016: Ball State, Kent State.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home64-439-27-2 ATS · 68 games
On the road38-621-20-3 ATS · 44 games
Neutral site13-78-12 ATS · 20 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

8,854 miles - ranked 44th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 8,854 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 08,854 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Ball StateHome0 mi
Week 2Texas1,067 mi2,133 mi
Week 3Kent StateHome2,133 mi
Week 4IllinoisHome2,133 mi
Week 5Iowa461 mi3,056 mi
Week 6MarylandHome3,056 mi
Week 7Indiana195 mi3,447 mi
Week 8-Bye
Week 9USC1,980 mi7,407 mi
Week 10OregonHome7,407 mi
Week 11NorthwesternHome7,407 mi
Week 12Nebraska723 mi8,854 mi
Week 13MichiganHome8,854 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Ohio State Buckeyes Season Outlook

A high-powered offense led by Sayin and Smith

Ohio State's offense has been explosive, averaging over 40 points per game. Quarterback Julian Sayin has been efficient, completing 69.8% of his passes for 1,773 yards with 16 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. His favorite target, Jeremiah Smith, has been unstoppable, recording 56 catches for 1,016 yards and 12 touchdowns, including a record-tying four-touchdown performance against Illinois. The running game, featuring Bo Jackson and Ja'Kobi Jackson, provides balance, and the offensive line has been solid despite recent injuries. This unit will need to continue producing at a high level for the Buckeyes to contend.

Defense showing promise but has vulnerabilities

The rebuilt defense under coordinator Matt Patricia has had its moments, holding Ball State to 165 total yards and Iowa to 238 yards. However, they struggled against Texas, allowing 24 points and a 20-point fourth-quarter comeback, and gave up 199 rushing yards to Illinois. The linebacker corps is still learning, and the secondary has been tested. The return of defensive linemen Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and James Smith has bolstered the run defense, but consistency remains a concern. This unit must improve to handle the upcoming gauntlet of Big Ten offenses.

Special teams and discipline are areas to watch

Kicker Connor Hawkins has been mostly reliable but missed a crucial 45-yard field goal against Texas that could have sealed the game. Punter Joe McGuire has been average, and the return game has been inconsistent. Additionally, the team has committed costly penalties, including eight for 75 yards against Maryland, which kept the Terrapins in the game. Cleaning up these mistakes will be critical in close matchups down the stretch.

Navigating a brutal stretch of Big Ten games

Ohio State is 5-1 and 3-0 in the Big Ten, but the schedule ramps up significantly. The Buckeyes face a tough road test at Indiana, followed by a trip to USC and a home game against Oregon. With one loss already, their margin for error is thin. The team must avoid letdowns and maintain focus to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. The experience of quarterback Julian Sayin and the playmaking ability of Jeremiah Smith will be key to navigating this challenging stretch.

Coaching and situational awareness under scrutiny

Head coach Ryan Day has faced criticism for his team's second-half execution and conservative play-calling with leads. The loss to Texas, where Ohio State blew a 20-point fourth-quarter lead, highlighted these issues. Day's decision to pull starters early in blowouts has also impacted margins. As the competition intensifies, Day and his staff must make better in-game adjustments and ensure the team plays a full 60 minutes. Their ability to manage close games will determine the season's outcome.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Ohio State Buckeyes's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Ohio State Buckeyes is 5-2 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 71% of games.

What is Ohio State Buckeyes's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Ohio State Buckeyes holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +26.9, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Ohio State Buckeyes's home field advantage rating?

Ohio State Buckeyes's home field advantage rating is 3.0 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Ohio State Buckeyes's 2026 win total?

Ohio State Buckeyes's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 9.5 wins, priced at -180 over and +140 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Ohio State Buckeyes travel in 2026?

Ohio State Buckeyes travels 8,854 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 44th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Ohio State Buckeyes: 6-1 overall, 5-2 ATS, power rating +26.9 (2026 records).