Fresno State (power rating: -3.9) holds a 20.6-point advantage over Sacramento State (-24.5) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Fresno State's home field adds 2.5 points to that advantage at Valley Children's Stadium. Beyond home field, the model reads only a slight effect from the warm conditions. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.
The latest reading for Valley Children's Stadium shows Clear, 80°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Prediction markets on Kalshi price Fresno State as 84% favorites to beat Sacramento State (17%). That implies a market-derived spread of Fresno State -10.4. The Blue Chip model makes it Fresno State -23.4, a notable divergence from the Kalshi consensus. Use the line value calculator below to compare prediction market probabilities against your own line.
Clear
80°F
| Measure | Sacramento StateAway | Fresno StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 151 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 420 miles |
| Season total | 4,135 miles | 420 miles |
| Body clock | 19:30 | 19:30 |
| Rest | 7 days | 8 days |
Sacramento State travels 151 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.
