Missouri State (power rating: -15.7) holds a 16.3-point advantage over Lindenwood (-32.0) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Missouri State's home field adds 2.5 points to that advantage at Plaster Sports Complex. Beyond home field, the model charges the heat, with a slighter reading for Lindenwood's extra rest. The weather component is provisional until the game-time reading is confirmed. Adjust the factors in the tool above to test your own numbers.
The latest reading for Plaster Sports Complex shows Clear, 91°F, heat index 92°F with winds of 12 mph. Gusts reaching 28 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. It was taken before the ~10-day forecast window opened, so it describes the furthest hour the forecast reached rather than kickoff itself, and it is replaced once the game comes inside the window. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Prediction markets on Kalshi price Missouri State as 52% favorites to beat Lindenwood (46%). That implies a market-derived spread of Missouri State -0.9. The Blue Chip model makes it Missouri State -19.0, a notable divergence from the Kalshi consensus. Use the line value calculator below to compare prediction market probabilities against your own line.
Clear
91°F
| Measure | LindenwoodAway | Missouri StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 187 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Bye week | 974 miles |
| Season total | 187 miles | 974 miles |
| Body clock | 18:00 | 18:00 |
| Rest | 9 days | 7 days |
Lindenwood travels 187 miles to this game, a short road trip. The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.
