Texas Longhorns is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +23.4. Texas Longhorns enters the season with a power rating of +23.4, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Texas Longhorns host Ohio State next in Week 2. In 2025, Texas Longhorns went 10-3 overall, 5-8 against the spread, and 6-7 on totals.
In Week 1 of 2026 the Texas Longhorns Power Rating of +23.4 is 23.4 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Texas Longhorns have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,438 miles, ranking 111th heaviest in the FBS.
Arch Manning QB, Cam Coleman WR, Raleek Brown RB, Hollywood Smothers RB, Melvin Siani OL, Jermaine Bishop Jr. WR, Ryan Niblett WR
Colin Simmons EDGE, Ty'Anthony Smith LB, Rasheem Biles LB, Justin Cryer LB, Jelani McDonald S, Bo Mascoe CB
Gianni Spetic K, Mac Chiumento P, Trey Dubuc LS
| After | Record | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Week 2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Week 3 | 2-1 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| Week 4 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Week 6 | 3-2 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Week 7 | 4-2 | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Week 8 | 5-2 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Week 9 | 6-2 | 2-6 | 3-5 |
| Week 10 | 7-2 | 2-7 | 4-5 |
| Week 12 | 7-3 | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| Week 13 | 8-3 | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Week 14 | 9-3 | 4-8 | 5-7 |
| Postseason | 10-3 | 5-8 | 6-7 |
A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.
Opened +19.1 in the preseason and finished +23.6 after the postseason, a move of +4.5 points. High +24.1 (week 12), low +18.9 (week 2).
PrePost
SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.
Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.
The measured home field advantage of +5.5 is regressed to +3.4 before it is applied, a difference of 2.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.
| Opponent | Met | Record | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| UTSA | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Oklahoma | 11 | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Florida | 2 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Mississippi State | 2 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Missouri | 1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| LSU | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Arkansas | 3 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Texas A&M | 2 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
No meeting on record since 2016: Texas State, Tennessee, Ole Miss.
Week 04,438 mi total
| Week | Opponent | Distance | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | - | Bye | |
| Week 1 | Texas State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 2 | Ohio State | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 3 | UTSA | Home | 0 mi |
| Week 4 | Tennessee | 890 mi | 1,780 mi |
| Week 5 | - | Bye | |
| Week 6 | Oklahoma | 181 mi | 2,142 mi |
| Week 7 | Florida | Home | 2,142 mi |
| Week 8 | Ole Miss | Home | 2,142 mi |
| Week 9 | Mississippi State | Home | 2,142 mi |
| Week 10 | Missouri | 671 mi | 3,484 mi |
| Week 11 | LSU | 391 mi | 4,266 mi |
| Week 12 | Arkansas | Home | 4,266 mi |
| Week 13 | Texas A&M | 86 mi | 4,438 mi |
| Week 14 | - | Bye | |
| Week 15 | - | Bye | |
| Week 16 | - | Bye | |
| Postseason | - | Bye | |
Texas enters 2026 with a roster built for big plays. Quarterback Arch Manning closed 2025 with 11 touchdown passes and just one interception over the final five games, plus four rushing scores and a receiving touchdown. Head coach Steve Sarkisian added high-impact transfers to surround him: wide receiver Cam Coleman from Auburn, running backs Raleek Brown from Arizona State and Hollywood Smothers from NC State, and tackle Melvin Siani from Wake Forest. Five-star freshman receiver Jermaine Bishop Jr. has drawn early comparisons to Xavier Worthy. The goal is clear: fix an offensive line that contributed to the team's lowest scoring average (30.5 points per game) under Sarkisian and turn this into the most explosive offense in the country.
Sarkisian replaced defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski with Will Muschamp, who returns to Texas after four years on Kirby Smart's staff at Georgia. Muschamp brings an attacking scheme with double-A-gap pressure and press-man coverage at cornerback, a stark shift from the bend-but-don't-break approach of recent seasons. The defense has playmakers at every level: edge rusher Colin Simmons led the SEC with 12 sacks in 2025, linebacker Ty'Anthony Smith returns, and transfers Rasheem Biles (Pitt) and Justin Cryer (Florida State) add depth. Safety Jelani McDonald was the team leader in tackles and interceptions last year. The question is whether the new aggressive style will hold up against elite SEC offenses.
Texas will have a completely new kicking battery in 2026. Gianni Spetic arrives from Memphis to handle placekicking, Mac Chiumento transfers in from Florida State to punt, and Trey Dubuc comes from New Mexico as the long-snapper. The one constant is Ryan Niblett, who finished as the nation's No. 2 punt returner in 2025 and returned punts for touchdowns against Oklahoma and Mississippi State. With new specialists, consistency on field goals and punting will be a key factor in close games, but Niblett gives the Longhorns a game-changing threat in the return game.
Texas is widely viewed as the team to beat in the SEC and a potential preseason No. 1. The roster is loaded with talent, but the pressure is immense. Manning, Coleman, and Simmons are all juniors and likely to enter the NFL draft after this season, making 2026 a championship-or-bust campaign. An opposing SEC assistant noted that Manning was unfairly hyped as a Heisman-or-bust player before he had even started a game, but praised his preparation and improvement. The Longhorns will face every opponent's best shot, and how they handle adversity after a loss or two will define their season.
The success of Texas's season hinges on the health and production of its top transfers. Coleman, Brown, Smothers, Siani, and cornerback Bo Mascoe (from Rutgers) are all expected to play major roles. If they stay on the field and perform to their potential, the Longhorns have the pieces for a deep playoff run. But if injuries hit, the depth behind them is unproven, especially on the offensive line and at running back. Sarkisian's gamble on transfers is a calculated risk, and the payoff will be determined over the course of the season.
Texas Longhorns is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.
Texas Longhorns holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +23.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.
Texas Longhorns's home field advantage rating is 3.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.
Texas Longhorns's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 9.5 wins, priced at +100 over and -130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.
Texas Longhorns travels 4,438 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 111th heaviest in the FBS.
Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.
Texas Longhorns: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating +23.4 (2026 records).