Texas Longhorns

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Texas Longhorns is 1-0 on the season, 1-0 against the spread, and holds a power rating of +23.4. Texas Longhorns enters the season with a power rating of +23.4, placing them above average relative to the FBS midpoint. The Texas Longhorns host Ohio State next in Week 2. In 2025, Texas Longhorns went 10-3 overall, 5-8 against the spread, and 6-7 on totals.

Conference: Southeastern Conference
Stadium: Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Power Rating (most current): +23.4
HFA Rating:3.4 pts
2026 Win Total:9.5
2026 Record: 1-0
2026 ATS: 1-0
2026 O/U: 1-0

2026 Schedule & Results

In Week 1 of 2026 the Texas Longhorns Power Rating of +23.4 is 23.4 points above the FBS average according to Blue Chip Analytics. Texas Longhorns have logged 0 miles of travel so far, out of a season total of 4,438 miles, ranking 111th heaviest in the FBS.

Texas Longhorns Coaching Staff and Key Players

Head coachSteve Sarkisian
Tenure5 seasons
Record at school48-20
Career record93-55 (11+ seasons)
Offensive coordinatorKyle Flood
Defensive coordinatorsWill Muschamp, Johnny Nansen

Offense

Arch Manning QB, Cam Coleman WR, Raleek Brown RB, Hollywood Smothers RB, Melvin Siani OL, Jermaine Bishop Jr. WR, Ryan Niblett WR

Defense

Colin Simmons EDGE, Ty'Anthony Smith LB, Rasheem Biles LB, Justin Cryer LB, Jelani McDonald S, Bo Mascoe CB

Special teams

Gianni Spetic K, Mac Chiumento P, Trey Dubuc LS

2025 Season in Review

Record10-3 ATS5-8 O/U6-7
Running totals after each week played. Cumulative, not per week.
AfterRecordATSO/U
Week 10-10-10-1
Week 21-10-20-2
Week 32-10-30-3
Week 43-11-31-3
Week 63-21-42-3
Week 74-22-42-4
Week 85-22-52-5
Week 96-22-63-5
Week 107-22-74-5
Week 127-32-84-6
Week 138-33-85-6
Week 149-34-85-7
Postseason10-35-86-7

A season record is a record, not a forecast. Blue Chip Analytics' own research finds that beating the closing line repeats at close to zero from one season to the next - see most underrated and overrated teams. Read the table as what happened, not as what is likely to happen next.

2025 Power Rating Trajectory

Opened +19.1 in the preseason and finished +23.6 after the postseason, a move of +4.5 points. High +24.1 (week 12), low +18.9 (week 2).

Line chart of the 2025 Blue Chip Analytics power rating across 18 points, from +19.1 to +23.6.

PrePost

Texas Longhorns SP+ Profile

Offence+37.67 of 138higher is better
Defence+14.38 of 138lower is better
Special teams+0.430 of 138higher is better

SP+ is an independent opponent-adjusted efficiency rating, one of the systems blended into the Blue Chip Analytics power rating rather than a Blue Chip Analytics number itself. Defensive SP+ measures points allowed, so a lower figure is a better defence - the rank beside it already accounts for that.

How Confident Is This Rating?

Sources blended5
Source spread±3.2 pts
HFA measured+5.5 pts
HFA applied+3.4 pts

Source spread is how far apart the independent rating systems are on this team, not a margin of error on our own number. A wide spread means the models disagree, which is itself worth knowing.

The measured home field advantage of +5.5 is regressed to +3.4 before it is applied, a difference of 2.1 points. A single venue's raw result carries a lot of noise, so the applied figure is pulled toward the league pattern. See how much is home field advantage really worth.

Record Against 2026 Opponents

Regular and postseason meetings, 2016–2025. Over/under history begins in 2017 and 2020 was shortened by COVID, so game counts vary.
OpponentMetRecordATS
Ohio State20-20-2
UTSA22-02-0
Oklahoma114-77-4
Florida21-11-1
Mississippi State22-00-2
Missouri11-01-0
LSU10-10-1
Arkansas32-11-2
Texas A&M22-02-0

No meeting on record since 2016: Texas State, Tennessee, Ole Miss.

Home, Road and Neutral, 2016–2025

At home48-1433-27-2 ATS · 62 games
On the road25-1918-25-1 ATS · 44 games
Neutral site12-1214-10 ATS · 24 games

2026 Season Travel Profile

4,438 miles - ranked 111th heaviest in FBS (138 teams)
Cumulative travel of 4,438 round-trip miles across the 2026 season.

Week 04,438 mi total

Week Opponent Distance Cumulative
Week 0-Bye
Week 1Texas StateHome0 mi
Week 2Ohio StateHome0 mi
Week 3UTSAHome0 mi
Week 4Tennessee890 mi1,780 mi
Week 5-Bye
Week 6Oklahoma181 mi2,142 mi
Week 7FloridaHome2,142 mi
Week 8Ole MissHome2,142 mi
Week 9Mississippi StateHome2,142 mi
Week 10Missouri671 mi3,484 mi
Week 11LSU391 mi4,266 mi
Week 12ArkansasHome4,266 mi
Week 13Texas A&M86 mi4,438 mi
Week 14-Bye
Week 15-Bye
Week 16-Bye
Postseason-Bye

Texas Longhorns Season Outlook

All-In on Explosive Offense

Texas enters 2026 with a roster built for big plays. Quarterback Arch Manning closed 2025 with 11 touchdown passes and just one interception over the final five games, plus four rushing scores and a receiving touchdown. Head coach Steve Sarkisian added high-impact transfers to surround him: wide receiver Cam Coleman from Auburn, running backs Raleek Brown from Arizona State and Hollywood Smothers from NC State, and tackle Melvin Siani from Wake Forest. Five-star freshman receiver Jermaine Bishop Jr. has drawn early comparisons to Xavier Worthy. The goal is clear: fix an offensive line that contributed to the team's lowest scoring average (30.5 points per game) under Sarkisian and turn this into the most explosive offense in the country.

New Defensive Identity Under Muschamp

Sarkisian replaced defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski with Will Muschamp, who returns to Texas after four years on Kirby Smart's staff at Georgia. Muschamp brings an attacking scheme with double-A-gap pressure and press-man coverage at cornerback, a stark shift from the bend-but-don't-break approach of recent seasons. The defense has playmakers at every level: edge rusher Colin Simmons led the SEC with 12 sacks in 2025, linebacker Ty'Anthony Smith returns, and transfers Rasheem Biles (Pitt) and Justin Cryer (Florida State) add depth. Safety Jelani McDonald was the team leader in tackles and interceptions last year. The question is whether the new aggressive style will hold up against elite SEC offenses.

Special Teams Rebuilt from Scratch

Texas will have a completely new kicking battery in 2026. Gianni Spetic arrives from Memphis to handle placekicking, Mac Chiumento transfers in from Florida State to punt, and Trey Dubuc comes from New Mexico as the long-snapper. The one constant is Ryan Niblett, who finished as the nation's No. 2 punt returner in 2025 and returned punts for touchdowns against Oklahoma and Mississippi State. With new specialists, consistency on field goals and punting will be a key factor in close games, but Niblett gives the Longhorns a game-changing threat in the return game.

High Expectations and a Target on Their Back

Texas is widely viewed as the team to beat in the SEC and a potential preseason No. 1. The roster is loaded with talent, but the pressure is immense. Manning, Coleman, and Simmons are all juniors and likely to enter the NFL draft after this season, making 2026 a championship-or-bust campaign. An opposing SEC assistant noted that Manning was unfairly hyped as a Heisman-or-bust player before he had even started a game, but praised his preparation and improvement. The Longhorns will face every opponent's best shot, and how they handle adversity after a loss or two will define their season.

Key Transfers Must Stay Healthy

The success of Texas's season hinges on the health and production of its top transfers. Coleman, Brown, Smothers, Siani, and cornerback Bo Mascoe (from Rutgers) are all expected to play major roles. If they stay on the field and perform to their potential, the Longhorns have the pieces for a deep playoff run. But if injuries hit, the depth behind them is unproven, especially on the offensive line and at running back. Sarkisian's gamble on transfers is a calculated risk, and the payoff will be determined over the course of the season.

Sources

Schedule & Results

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Texas Longhorns's against-the-spread record in 2026?

Texas Longhorns is 1-0 against the spread in the 2026 season, covering 100% of games.

What is Texas Longhorns's Blue Chip Analytics power rating?

Texas Longhorns holds a Blue Chip Analytics power rating of +23.4, representing their expected point margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field.

What is Texas Longhorns's home field advantage rating?

Texas Longhorns's home field advantage rating is 3.4 points, the venue adjustment Blue Chip Analytics applies for games at their home stadium.

What is Texas Longhorns's 2026 win total?

Texas Longhorns's consensus regular-season win total for 2026 is 9.5 wins, priced at +100 over and -130 under. This is the betting market's expectation, not a Blue Chip Analytics projection.

How many miles does Texas Longhorns travel in 2026?

Texas Longhorns travels 4,438 miles in the 2026 season, ranking 111th heaviest in the FBS.

How does Blue Chip Analytics calculate cumulative travel distance?

Cumulative travel distance counts both the outbound and return journey for every away game. For example, if a team travels 374 miles to play an away game, Blue Chip Analytics counts 748 miles (374 miles there, 374 miles back) toward the cumulative total. Home games and bye weeks add zero miles. The per-week Distance column shows the one-way distance only, as the return trip happens after the game is played.

Texas Longhorns: 1-0 overall, 1-0 ATS, power rating +23.4 (2026 records).