Ball State (power rating: -18.9) holds a 9.1-point edge over Stony Brook (-28.0) on a neutral field per Blue Chip Analytics. Ball State's home field adds 2.8 points to that edge at Scheumann Stadium. Stony Brook travels 648 miles for this game — check the travel panel for rest and body clock context. See Line Value below.
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Game-time forecast at Scheumann Stadium shows Clear — 75.0°F, Feels Like 64.6°F with winds of 5.6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. The weather adjustment has been pre-filled in the Line Value Calculator above — adjust manually if conditions change before kick-off.
75.0°F
Ball State enters with two transfer quarterbacks—Keldric Luster (dual-threat) and Tyler Mizzell (pass-first)—both expected to play. Luster's mobility could be key against Ohio State's defensive front, but the lack of a settled starter may limit offensive rhythm early.
Ball State's offensive line, anchored by All-MAC candidate Tristan Cook at right tackle, is the team's strongest unit. However, Ohio State's defensive line is elite, and the Cardinals' unproven quarterback and receiving corps will need time to operate—making pass protection critical.
The secondary features experienced cornerback Willizhuan Yates and safety Deondre Shepherd, plus Purdue transfer Sterling Smith. However, the defensive line is thin and relies on rotational players like Ameir Glenn and Ben Marsh, which could be exploited by Ohio State's powerful run game and quick passing attack.
Ball State travels only 128 miles to Ohio Stadium, a short trip, but faces a massive home-field advantage (HFA 3.0) in a 100,000+ seat venue. The forecast is partly cloudy with 63°F and 12 mph wind, which may affect passing but is manageable.
Kicker Carson Holmer struggled last season (3-for-7 FG, long 23 yards) and may be a liability in a game where scoring opportunities are limited. Punter Cole Stumbaugh is reliable, but field position battles will be crucial against a superior opponent.
Stony Brook travels 648 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Ball State (-18.9) over Stony Brook (-28.0) by 9.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Ball State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Blue Chip Analytics rates Ball State as the stronger team by 9.1 points on a neutral field; apply HFA and travel context before finalising a line read.
